American Model Reveals Date for End of Heatwave: Temperatures to Drop by More Than 10°C
As Croatia battles the peak of the heatwave and tropical nights, long-term forecasts offer a glimmer of hope. However, meteorologists urge caution.
As Croatia battles the peak of the heatwave and tropical nights, long-term forecasts offer a glimmer of hope. However, meteorologists urge caution.
Croatia is at the peak of a heatwave today, with nighttime temperatures on the Adriatic coast and inland breaking records. N1 meteorologist Bojan Lipovšćak confirms that along the coast, temperatures did not drop below 30°C at night, while inland they mostly stayed above 21°C. A particularly difficult night was recorded in Zagreb, where the Maksimir station measured around 28°C with 50% relative humidity, creating an extremely muggy tropical night.
However, a brief respite is on the way. "Today we forecast a change in weather in the northwestern inland regions and the northern Adriatic," Lipovšćak announces. The passage of a weakened cold front north of the Alps will bring cloud cover, and strong thunderstorms with gale-force gusts are possible, especially in Istria, Kvarner, and Gorski Kotar as early as the morning.
This relief will be short-lived and limited in scope. Cooler air will be blocked by the orographic barrier of the Dinaric Alps, meaning the central and southern Adriatic will continue to experience hot and sunny weather. The State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ) has kept the red heat alert in effect for the Rijeka, Split, and Dubrovnik regions, while yellow and orange warnings for strong bora winds have been issued for the northern Adriatic.
In the foothills of Velebit, locally stormy bora gusts of up to 100 km/h are expected, and a sharp lebić wind will blow on the central and southern Adriatic, so caution is advised for maritime activities. Daytime temperatures in Dalmatia, Slavonia, Baranja, and Srijem will range from 34 to 39°C, while in the northwestern inland regions they will be slightly lower, between 29 and 33°C.
Lipovšćak warns that the respite is brief. "According to current numerical weather prediction model calculations, this weak push of cooler air will only cool the atmosphere inland, and with its passage, we already expect a rise in air temperatures and a continuation of the heatwave from Sunday," he stated. The first stronger push of cold air from the north, in his words, is likely only in 10 to 13 days.
Saturday, August 8, will bring variably cloudy and unstable weather. Inland, there may be light rain in places, and during the day, with strong cloud development, thunderstorms are possible. Morning temperatures inland will drop to a more pleasant 14 to 18°C, but on the Adriatic, the night will remain warm with temperatures around 23°C, and due to the föhn effect of the bora, locally up to 29°C.
While Croatian meteorologists refrain from long-term forecasts, the American system AccuWeather, known for its extensive computer calculations, offers a specific date. According to their data, by the end of the month, temperatures could finally drop to around 30°C and then below. This date coincides with the folk tradition that summer "burns the hardest until the Assumption, and then the heat eases after the Assumption."
Slobodna Dalmacija, which reports on AccuWeather and folk forecasts, also reminds of another folk tradition: the first rain after the Assumption means the final blow to the heatwave, with temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees. However, Jutarnji list warns that the reliability of such long-term forecasts decreases with longer timeframes and that one should be extremely cautious when drawing conclusions. For comparison, in recent years, we have seen days in September with 32, 33, or 34 degrees.
Even the Norwegian weather service Yr.no, in its multi-day forecast for Dalmatia, does not see an end to the heat, suggesting that the heatwave, with brief interruptions, could last at least another ten days. The sea temperature is currently between 26 and 28°C, and the UV index is high to very high.
