Lithuania Warns: Russia Could Attack the Baltics
Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas claims Moscow is preparing a false flag operation to undermine NATO unity.
Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas claims Moscow is preparing a false flag operation to undermine NATO unity.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas warned on Wednesday that Russia is considering carrying out provocations against NATO members in the Baltic region, using captured Ukrainian drones. The aim of such a false flag operation would be to shift blame onto Ukraine and weaken Western support for Kyiv.
According to information from Lithuanian military intelligence, Russia is considering unconventional kinetic attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. For these attacks, it would use intercepted or reconstructed drones of Ukrainian origin, creating the impression that Ukraine is behind the strikes. "We have data indicating that Russia is considering unconventional kinetic attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian drones for this purpose," Kaunas told Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT.
The minister did not provide specific details about potential targets or the timeframe for possible attacks, but emphasized that Lithuanian authorities are continuously monitoring the situation. "We are assessing and monitoring the threat level," he added. He also noted that the risk of a conventional military attack on Lithuania remains low.
Kaunas explained that such an operation would serve as a test for the NATO alliance. "We are talking about a false flag operation, using a fake Ukrainian drone... One of the goals is to shake NATO and reduce support for Ukraine. I assure you that this will not happen," he said. Lithuania is sharing intelligence with Poland and other allies, and Latvian authorities have already increased protection of critical infrastructure due to possible Russian provocations.
Poland's National Security Committee has also considered the scenario of a Russian false flag operation with drones bearing Ukrainian markings. Leaders of NATO's eastern flank countries have repeatedly warned publicly in recent months about intelligence indicating preparations for Russian provocations on their territory.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda stated back in July that intelligence pointed to Russian plans for attacks on infrastructure, leading to heightened security measures around energy and transport facilities. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed those claims as "scare stories" used to justify militarization against Russia.
Military drones flying from Ukraine toward targets in Russia have in recent months strayed into the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states. Kyiv claims this is due to Russian electronic jamming of signals. Moscow has suggested that the Baltic states allow Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russian targets, which both the Baltic states and Ukraine strongly deny.
The warnings from Lithuania come amid intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on Tuesday that he had spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the latest Russian missile and drone strikes. "I am talking to allies about how we can continue to provide Ukraine with the air defense they urgently need," Rutte wrote.
Lithuania believes that in the event of an escalation of Russian provocations to a critical security situation, NATO would deploy additional military forces to the Baltic state.
