Super El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole: Winter 2026/2027 Forecast

As an exceptionally strong Super El Niño rapidly develops in the Pacific Ocean, meteorologists are now closely monitoring another major phenomenon that has emerged in the tropics, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). According to initial seasonal forecasts, their simultaneous influence could significantly shape weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere during the upcoming winter of 2026/2027.

Seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate that the combined impact of these two phenomena could persist through autumn and into early winter. This powerful combination has the potential to directly influence the movement of the jet stream, the fast high-altitude air current that steers storms and cyclones across the planet.

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole and why does it matter?

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurs when sea surface temperatures in the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean begin to differ significantly. As we now enter a positive phase, the western part of the ocean warms above normal, while the eastern part experiences cooling. This temperature difference drives a strong atmospheric circulation that affects weather patterns worldwide.

According to the latest data, the positive dipole is still in its early stages, but it is predicted to persist through autumn and dissipate only at the beginning of winter. Seasonal precipitation forecasts for autumn already indicate a pronounced rainfall deficit in the eastern Indian Ocean and more abundant rainfall in the west, confirming the strengthening of its atmospheric influence.

Super El Niño accumulates record heat

Meanwhile, a Super El Niño is intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, which, according to current models, could become one of the strongest events on record. In parts of the central and eastern Pacific, sea surface temperatures are already 4 to 5°C above normal.

Even more dramatic is the situation below the surface. At depths of up to 500 meters, a large area with temperatures more than 8°C above average has been detected. This warm Kelvin wave is gradually moving eastward and surfacing, further intensifying El Niño. The CFSv2 model and ECMWF forecasts suggest that the peak of the event could exceed three degrees, and in some scenarios reach six degrees.

First forecast for Europe and the Balkans: What to expect this winter?

When a Super El Niño and a positive IOD occur simultaneously, they form a coordinated system of two oceans that significantly influences jet streams and storm tracks. For Europe, this implies the following scenarios:

• Above-average temperatures: Forecasts indicate a high-pressure area over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, while lower pressure would persist over the northwestern and northern parts of the continent. This pressure difference would strengthen westerly winds bringing milder and more humid air from the Atlantic. Therefore, from December to February, temperatures are expected to be mostly above average across much of Europe.
• Increased precipitation: Enhanced westerly flow carries a large amount of moisture, so above-average precipitation is expected in parts of the continent, especially in northern and northwestern areas.
• Less snow in lowlands: The current seasonal pattern is not particularly favorable for abundant snowfall in lower elevations. Snowy conditions would be mostly limited to northern and northeastern regions and higher mountain areas of Central Europe. For snow in the lowlands, humid Atlantic air would need to directly collide with sufficiently cold air coming from the north or east.

Meteorologists, however, emphasize that the seasonal forecast only shows the prevailing average pattern over several months. A mild winter on average does not rule out individual strong cold outbreaks, snowstorms, and short periods of extreme winter weather. For North America, the combination of these phenomena predicts a pronounced climatic contrast and the possibility of an active snow season in the central and southern parts of the US and Canada.