Europe This Summer: A Powerless Observer of Its Own Fate
Wars, climate disasters, and migrant waves expose the continent's limited influence over the key crises that directly affect it.
Wars, climate disasters, and migrant waves expose the continent's limited influence over the key crises that directly affect it.
This summer, Europe once again finds itself in the position of an observer as key global crises shape its destiny without its significant input. Will U.S. President Donald Trump escalate the conflict with Iran, triggering another spike in oil prices? Will climate change cause even more devastating fires across the continent? And will the sudden migrant wave from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta deepen divisions among European leaders and strengthen the far right? These are just some of the burning questions weighing on European governments, over which they have very limited influence, according to an analysis by The New York Times.
Although most European states opposed the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, its consequences are already being felt by citizens through higher fuel prices, rising food costs, and increased travel expenses. Despite having announced support for ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz after a permanent cessation of hostilities, it seems Europe will learn about the next stage of the conflict mainly from Trump's social media posts rather than through diplomatic channels.
In April 2026, the United Kingdom and France announced a plan for a possible naval operation to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but the operation has been postponed for now due to continued sporadic clashes. The situation is further exacerbated by Trump's rhetoric-the U.S. president has warned that Tehran will be "hit very hard" if it does not soon allow free navigation. Such statements increase anxiety in Europe, which would be the first to feel the economic consequences of any expansion of the conflict.
More than four years after the start of the Russian invasion, Europe has still not found a solution to the war in Ukraine. European countries and the UK have given Kyiv billions of dollars in support, imposed restrictions on Russia, and welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees through special protection measures. Following Trump's return to the White House in 2025 and his signals of rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Britain, France, Germany, and other states formed the "Coalition of the Willing" to protect Ukraine's interests in potential peace negotiations.
In secret talks, they sought to bring the positions of the Ukrainian and American leaders closer, which, according to some experts, prevented a possible Trump-Putin deal that would have been unfavorable to Ukraine. Nevertheless, European leaders face the reality that decisions about their security are often made without them. Ukrainian security analyst Lesya Ogryzko, in an article for the Atlantic Council, noted that the coming months will be the toughest test for Europe's aspirations toward strategic independence.
While dealing with geopolitical crises, the continent is simultaneously suffering increasingly pronounced effects of climate change. Europe is warming faster than other continents, and Britain recorded its driest July in two hundred years. Wildfires in France and Spain have forced over 300,000 people to flee their homes, while in Greece, firefighters have died battling blazes that are not yet fully under control.
European states have shared a common stance on the dangers of climate change for nearly two decades, but after Trump's rise to power, differences between Europe and the United States have deepened, complicating global efforts to combat climate change.
A new political storm was triggered by the sudden arrival of tens of thousands of people in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta on the North African coast. Spanish leftist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, usually known for a relatively open approach to legal migrants, took a firm stance against illegal border crossings from Morocco. Authorities immediately mobilized the military, and most migrants were returned across the border over the weekend. A floating barrier is also being installed along the maritime border.
This event revealed deep disagreements within the European Union. Far-right parties, such as Germany's AfD and France's National Rally, have in recent years successfully exploited fears of migration to win voters. As many as 22 member states condemned Spain immediately after the migrant influx, with some even proposing a temporary expulsion of the country from the Schengen zone. Sánchez responded by accusing them of selfishness.
Despite all the problems, Europe has not remained passive-it has coordinated aid to Ukraine, developed common climate policies, and maintained strong economic influence. However, many believe the EU is still not sufficiently united when faced with major global crises. Richard Haass, long-time president of the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, believes Europe is not only a victim of circumstances but also of its own decisions-it has invested too little in security and has not organized itself well enough to protect its own interests.
The same applies to advances in artificial intelligence, where Europe largely remains passive while the U.S. and China set the main trends. Europe's fundamental problem, Haass concludes, is perhaps best described by the sentence: "The whole is much less than the sum of its parts."
