The number of days hazardous to health due to heat has drastically increased, with temperatures expected to rise by more than two degrees by mid-century. Experts warn of the urgent need for systematic adaptation measures.
The heatwave currently gripping Croatia, with temperatures set to reach up to 39 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, is just the latest episode in a multi-decade warming trend with serious consequences for public health. Data from the State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ) shows that since the second half of the 20th century, the mean temperature has increased by 0.2 to 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade, and experts warn that this trend will continue and intensify.
Climatologists Sara Ivasić and Lidija Srnec, heads of the Department for Climate Change and Biometeorology at DHMZ, emphasize that heatwaves are the weather extreme with the greatest impact on health. "By mid-century, the mean annual temperature is expected to rise by about 1.5 to 1.7 degrees Celsius, while summer temperatures in much of Croatia will increase by more than two degrees," Ivasić and Srnec stated for Novi list.
Comparison with the period of about twenty years ago reveals alarming figures. In the continental part of Croatia, the number of days hazardous to health due to high temperatures has increased from an average of five to nearly 18 per year, while on the Adriatic coast it has risen from ten to approximately 30 days per year. DHMZ bases these data on monitoring the link between temperature and mortality in Osijek, Zagreb, Karlovac, Gospić, Knin, Rijeka, Split, and Dubrovnik.
"Compared to the period from 1991 to 2000, during the period from 2011 to 2020, there was on average twice as many heatwaves," added Ivasić and Srnec. In addition to becoming more frequent, heatwaves are also starting earlier, increasingly in June, thereby extending the entire period of exposure to extreme temperatures.
Atmospheric physicist Branko Grisogono emphasizes that the link between climate change and human health is no longer a hypothesis. "The increase in mortality is over 10 percent, but we must also add mortality related to (super)fine particles in the air coming from traffic, industry, and air transport from subtropical regions," Grisogono stated for Novi list. He particularly warned of the direct impact on the human body, including the skin and eyes, and cited his own experience of developing melanoma while working in the desert.
The pressure on the health system is also measurable through the work of emergency services. During the summer months, out-of-hospital emergency services record between 15 and 40 percent more interventions than during the rest of the year. The Croatian Institute of Emergency Medicine explains that this increase cannot be attributed solely to heat, but also to more intense traffic and summer activities, but emphasizes that "extremely high temperatures, especially heatwaves, affect the health of all people, including those who are completely healthy."
According to DHMZ data reported by HRT, a red meteoalarm is in effect for Tuesday for eastern Croatia, central inland regions, and the northern Adriatic. Daytime temperatures in eastern Croatia and central regions will range from 37 to 39 °C, while on the northern Adriatic they will be between 33 and 36 °C. In Dalmatia, temperatures are expected to be between 34 and 38 °C, with an orange meteoalarm. A change in weather with showers and thunderstorms in central and eastern Croatia is expected on Friday.
Since 2012, the Protocol on Procedures and Recommendations for Protection against Heat has been in effect. "We can say that our citizens are informed about the dangers and possible consequences of high temperatures on health, and we believe that they are increasingly following the recommendations," stated the Croatian Institute of Emergency Medicine, adding that additional national activities aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change are needed.
Dunja Plačko-Vršnak, head of the Sector for Weather Analysis and Forecasts at DHMZ, highlighted the importance of the Early Warning and Crisis Management System, through which, in cooperation with the Civil Protection Directorate, citizens receive messages on mobile devices about dangerous weather phenomena. Grisogono advocates for the creation of a special institute that would deal with climate change in a systematic way, as well as for strengthening domestic food production. Climatologists Ivasić and Srnec conclude: "It is important to regularly monitor weather forecasts and adapt in a timely manner. It is equally important that projections of future climate be taken into account when planning development, investments, and making strategic decisions to reduce risks and increase society's resilience."
