Former CIA analyst warns that the US and Israel are drawn into a conflict without a strategic plan, based on fabricated intelligence, while Israel's military defeat raises the danger of the first use of nuclear weapons since 1962.
Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst with 27 years of experience in producing National Intelligence Estimates, together with Professor Glen Diesen, assessed that the United States and Israel have been drawn into an armed conflict with Iran without any long-term plan. In a conversation on Diesen's YouTube channel, McGovern stated that Israel has already been defeated in the war with Tehran and that the threat of nuclear escalation is becoming real for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
McGovern emphasized that Marco Rubio, who serves as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor in Donald Trump's administration, publicly confirmed that Israel initiated the attacks on Iran. As he explained, the US became involved preemptively, fearing an Iranian counterstrike on American forces. Rubio currently holds two key positions, making him the sole filter through which intelligence from the CIA and the National Security Council reaches the President.
The military action was launched at a time when diplomats were on the verge of a deal. According to McGovern, the Omani Foreign Minister mediated a meeting in Geneva on February 26, 2026, with representatives from the US and Iran. The very next day, he reported to the US Vice President in Washington that Tehran was ready for significant concessions on uranium enrichment and had, for the first time, agreed to international inspections. The Omani diplomat confirmed these claims to CBS television on February 27, but just hours later, strikes on Iran began. McGovern also adds accusations from Oman that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner deceived Trump by claiming that the Iranian regime was in transition.
"While the US and Iran can survive the consequences of the conflict, for Israel this is an existential war in which it has staked everything on a single card," McGovern stressed. In his assessment, Iran has demonstrated superiority in missile capabilities, particularly in hypersonic weapons with heavy warheads, thereby pushing back Israeli and American forces. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused global economic turmoil and a sharp rise in fuel prices, while US bases in Gulf countries are under constant Iranian attacks.
Diesen and McGovern warn that pushing a nuclear power into a no-win situation opens the possibility of using tactical or strategic nuclear weapons. McGovern cited John F. Kennedy's 1963 speech, which emphasized that nuclear powers must not force an adversary to choose between a humiliating retreat and activating its nuclear arsenal. If Israeli forces face a complete collapse, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could resort to the so-called "Samson Option," which entails destroying the enemy at the cost of one's own destruction.
McGovern draws a direct parallel with the preparations for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. He recalled the June 2008 report by the US Senate Intelligence Committee, which concluded that the data used to justify that war were "unsubstantiated, baseless, contradictory, or nonexistent." He also quoted a note from a meeting between MI6 chief Richard Dearlove and Prime Minister Tony Blair on July 23, 2002, stating that "intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy." He claims that the same model of fabricating information is now being applied to Iran.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, testifying under oath before Congress in March 2025, confirmed the consensus of all 16 US intelligence agencies. This stance dates back to the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate led by Thomas Fingar, which concluded that Iran had halted its nuclear program in late 2003 and had never resumed it, with the religious prohibition remaining in effect.
When it became clear that the military campaign would neither topple the regime nor spark an uprising, targets shifted to civilian infrastructure, including desalination plants and fuel storage facilities. McGovern highlighted the February 28, 2026, attack on Minab, where 168 girls aged six to twelve, along with their parents, were killed in a prayer shelter. That strike occurred in the same wave in which the then-Iranian Supreme Leader was killed in his own home. McGovern dismissed Trump's claims that the Iranians bombed the school themselves, calling them physically and temporally impossible, and attributed responsibility to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Hegseth had earlier disbanded the Pentagon unit for verifying civilian casualties and issued an order to "show no mercy."
The conflict has resulted in the complete collapse of the US security system in the Persian Gulf. McGovern reveals that Vladimir Putin, just two days after the start of the conflict, spoke by phone with leaders of Arab Gulf states, telling them that US security guarantees had proven worthless. The following day, Sergey Lavrov, at a gathering with Arab leaders, quoted a Bedouin proverb that "it is impossible to ride two camels at the same time."
