Russian Oil Exports Fall Below 4 Million Barrels a Day
The decline follows a temporary lull in Ukrainian attacks on refineries, but new strikes threaten recovery. Meanwhile, a record MLB franchise sale was approved.
The decline follows a temporary lull in Ukrainian attacks on refineries, but new strikes threaten recovery. Meanwhile, a record MLB franchise sale was approved.
Russian crude oil exports have fallen below 4 million barrels a day for the first time in six weeks, dropping to 3.9 million barrels a day in the four-week period through August 2, 2026, according to data analyzed by Bloomberg. This is the lowest export level since mid-June.
The export decline came after Ukraine temporarily shifted its attacks during the second half of July from refineries to tankers in the Black and Azov Seas and to storage facilities in western Russia. This brief lull allowed Russian refiners to carry out repairs and increase processing rates, drawing barrels away from the export stream.
However, refineries came under fire again last week. Rosneft's plant in Ryazan, Lukoil's refinery in Volgograd, and facilities in Ufa and Saratov were hit. These new attacks are expected to boost exports again in the coming weeks.
Weekly shipments fell sharply to 3.52 million barrels a day, a significant drop from the revised 4.21 million barrels a day the previous week. Despite this, average year-to-date flows of 3.63 million barrels a day remain above the full-year average for every year since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The gross value of exports on a four-week basis, however, rose by $60 million to $1.69 billion per week, as higher prices for Urals and ESPO crude offset the decline in volume. In contrast, the weekly value of exports fell by about $410 million to $1.67 billion, affected by lower flows and prices.
The volume of Russian oil at sea has dropped sharply to around 120 million barrels, driven by reduced shipments, although shipments to India remain near record levels. At the same time, growing logistical problems are being recorded. Delays in unloading Russian oil off the coast of Egypt have extended to about a month and a half, compared with less than a week earlier this year. Additionally, dozens of Arctic oil cargoes have piled up near Singapore for ship-to-ship transfers, often with tracking systems switched off.
In separate events on August 4, MLB club owners approved the sale of the San Diego Padres franchise for $3.9 billion, the most expensive sale in league history. The previous record was held by billionaire Steve Cohen, who paid $2.4 billion for the New York Mets in 2020.
On the geopolitical front, a new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is underway. Meanwhile, Gulf countries, themselves targets of attacks, are seeking more favorable options for counter-drone defense to bolster their arsenals.
