American intelligence assessments indicate the possibility of Russian aggressive moves against the Alliance, including cyber attacks and limited ground incursions, although the likelihood of the most severe scenario is currently low.
American intelligence agencies have revised their assessment and now warn that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member state before the war in Ukraine ends. According to information published by the Wall Street Journal, the scenarios under consideration range from cyber attacks to a limited ground incursion into the Alliance's eastern flank.
Previously, the United States believed that Russian President Putin would not provoke any NATO member while the conflict in Ukraine continues. However, according to US officials, this assessment changed earlier this year. The reason lies in the increasing pressure on the Kremlin, driven by the situation on the battlefield and growing expectations within Russia for victory.
Ukrainian drones are inflicting increasing losses on the Russian military and oil industry, while Russian forces, at great cost, are making only minimal advances along the front line. In such circumstances, US agencies are analyzing whether Moscow plans to intensify aggressive activities against European allies.
According to US intelligence assessments, any of the scenarios under consideration could occur between this autumn and 2029. Among the potential threats are a cyber attack on a member state, the deployment of unmarked armed groups aimed at seizing territory, or a limited ground incursion into the Alliance's eastern flank.
Although the reports conclude that the likelihood of the most severe scenario-a limited ground incursion-remains low, they emphasize that it is increasing over time. Putin's goal in such an attack, US officials claim, would be to sow divisions within the NATO alliance.
These assessments come at a time when the United States is facing a shortage of certain types of key ammunition needed for a potential conflict with Russia or China. Stockpiles of these weapons have been significantly reduced due to deliveries to Ukraine following the Russian invasion, as well as the US conflict with Iran.
Among the affected stockpiles, according to officials, are long-range precision-guided missiles, tactical missile systems used by ground forces, and Stinger short-range air defense missiles.
Meanwhile, NATO announced new initiatives on Thursday aimed at facilitating cooperation with industry. As announced on the Alliance's official Twitter profile, the goal is to streamline procurement processes, increase transparency regarding capability needs, and foster transatlantic defense industrial cooperation.
