Ukraine in the 12th Round of the Energy War
Energy Minister Shmyhal Confident in Survival, While Analysts Warn of Delayed Equipment Deliveries and Russian Attacks on Water Supply
Energy Minister Shmyhal Confident in Survival, While Analysts Warn of Delayed Equipment Deliveries and Russian Attacks on Water Supply
Ukraine and Russia are waging a relentless battle to destroy each other's energy systems, a campaign that will define future peace negotiations. While Kyiv claims it is ready for winter, independent analysts warn of serious shortcomings in preparation and slow delivery of key equipment from allies.
In an exclusive interview with POLITICO published on August 3, 2026, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal gave a grim assessment of Russian intentions. "Putin wants to finish off our energy system and derail our economy and weapons production," Shmyhal said from his office in Kyiv. "He also hopes that in winter, our society will crack from exhaustion and pressure the leadership to sign a surrender."
Shmyhal compared the energy conflict to boxing. "It's like the 12th round, and every boxer hopes his rival will fall first," he said. Kyiv hopes that their strikes on Russian refineries, which have disabled about 40 percent of Russia's primary refining capacity, combined with allied sanctions, will force Vladimir Putin to stop the war this autumn.
The scale of destruction to Ukraine's energy infrastructure is enormous. Before 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea and began the war in eastern Ukraine, the country produced 54.5 gigawatts of electricity. After the start of the full-scale invasion, production fell to 32 GW, partly because key facilities like the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, could not supply electricity.
This year, after Russian winter attacks, Ukraine's energy production was only about 12 GW, leaving a deficit of 6 GW that forces rotating restrictions across the country. "The Russians have destroyed or damaged more than 80 percent of Ukraine's electricity production," Shmyhal said.
Shmyhal warned of a shift in Russian tactics. "Russia's goal now is to destroy our water supply systems. Last winter, they targeted electricity and heating, but you could still survive if you had gas and water during a power outage," he said. "It's hard to survive more than three days without water and sewage."
Ukraine is working to strengthen its resilience. Protective covers are being built for electricity, water, and gas storage facilities, and modular boilers and generators are being distributed that are smaller and more dispersed than conventional power plants, making them harder targets for Russian attacks. "Ukraine has gained the ability to adapt very quickly to crises and challenges," Shmyhal said.
To survive the winter, Ukraine needs an additional 500 million euros before winter, as well as about 400 million euros to help the state gas company Naftogaz recover from Russian attacks, with Kyiv hoping for Canadian support. Also crucial are PAC-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, of which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy aims to acquire 300.
The Ukraine Energy Support Fund, managed by the Energy Community Secretariat, has raised 2.1 billion euros in donations from 40 countries and organizations. Last year, the fund signed 367 procurement contracts and delivered 447 million euros in energy support, with three-quarters of the funds supporting electricity generation, distribution, and transmission. "But the equipment is being destroyed, and we need a reserve for winter," Shmyhal emphasized.
Contrary to Shmyhal's optimism, Alexander Kharchenko, head of the Energy Research Center, stated on August 4, 2026, that Ukraine is not ready for new strikes on the energy sector this winter. According to him, the delivery of necessary equipment from partners is slow: funds were allocated back in March, procurement procedures only began in June, and the completion time for some orders is about a year.
Kharchenko warned that due to extended timelines for restoring and modernizing the energy system, Ukraine will inevitably face additional risks after new strikes on infrastructure. In a column for the Russian state agency TASS, Vasily Koltashov, director of the Institute of New Society, went further, estimating that even a moderately cold winter risks turning into a logistical nightmare for Ukraine and significantly exhausting its rear.
Koltashov identified Ukraine's Achilles' heel in energy production and fuel infrastructure, forecasting that by winter, gas stations on the left bank of Ukraine could almost disappear.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized on Monday that Ukraine's campaign against Russia, along with increased sanctions, is a priority he hopes will "leave Russia with only peace as an alternative." But he is also aware of the reality. "But we clearly understand who we are dealing with and that Putin hopes to prolong this war further," he said, warning of a winter energy war.
Shmyhal's preferred scenario is for Putin to realize he cannot win the war and reach a peace deal this autumn. However, the Kremlin chief has shown no signs of abandoning his demands on Ukraine. "He will bleed, but he will drag us into winter," Shmyhal said. "This is a pessimistic scenario, but my optimism is that we will survive this winter; we are ready for it."
According to data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published on August 4, 2026, Russia lost 1,240 soldiers in the past 24 hours, bringing total Russian losses since February 24, 2022, to 1,451,750 killed and wounded. Also destroyed were 55 artillery systems, 1,792 drones, and 379 vehicles and fuel tankers.
