How many Ukrainians believe in victory in the war?

According to the KIIS survey from July 2026, 82 percent of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win the war.

What percentage of respondents expect Russia to win?

Only three percent of respondents expect Russia to emerge as the winner in the war.

Has optimism declined compared to previous years?

Yes, in February 2024, 89 percent of respondents believed in victory, while in July 2026, that percentage dropped to 82 percent.

How was the survey conducted?

The survey was conducted using a combined method on 1,808 respondents, with half interviewed by phone and half face-to-face.

World

82 Percent of Ukrainians Believe in Victory, 3 Percent Expect Russia to Triumph

A.B. · Prije 2h | 2 min

A new survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reveals strong morale in Ukrainian society despite the complex situation on the battlefield.

Summary

82% of Ukrainians believe in ultimate victory, while only 3% expect Russia to win.
59% of respondents are fully convinced of victory, while 23% believe Ukraine is likely to win.
39% of respondents think the current situation on the battlefield favors Ukraine, and 32% believe neither side has the advantage.
Compared to February 2024, belief in victory has seen a slight decline from 89% to 82%.

Despite an exhausting war that has lasted for years, the optimism of Ukrainian society shows no signs of waning. As many as 82 percent of Ukrainians believe that their country will ultimately emerge victorious in the war against Russia, according to the latest survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The survey, conducted from July 16 to 31, 2026, on a sample of 1,808 respondents, reveals that the belief in victory is deeply rooted. Fully convinced of victory are 59 percent, while an additional 23 percent believe that Ukraine is likely to win. On the opposite side, only three percent of respondents expect Russia to win, and 16 percent could not make up their minds.

Perception of the Current Situation on the Battlefield

When it comes to the current state of affairs at the front, opinions are more divided, but still with an optimistic slant. Some 39 percent believe that the situation is in Ukraine's favor. Only seven percent think Russia has the advantage. Interestingly, nearly a third, 32 percent, believe that neither side currently holds the upper hand.

"The absolute majority of Ukrainians, 82%, believe that Ukraine will eventually win the war, but of those who are fully convinced of this, 59% (the remaining 23% rather think Ukraine will win).", reads the KIIS report, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda.

Slight Decline Compared to Earlier Period

A comparison with the previous survey by the same institute from February 2024 shows a slight decline in optimism. At that time, 89 percent of respondents believed in victory, with 60 percent fully convinced. The decline is noticeable but not dramatic, suggesting that Ukrainian society maintains a high level of resilience and faith in a favorable outcome.

The survey was conducted using a combined methodology. Half of the respondents, 905 of them, were interviewed by phone, including 305 people currently living in Kyiv. The other half, 903 respondents, participated in face-to-face interviews using tablets, of which 302 were from Kyiv.