After six months of decline, HDZ has stabilized its rating at 27.4 percent, but the rise of Možemo and Most, along with the weakening of the Homeland Movement, complicates the electoral math two years before the parliamentary elections.
In July, HDZ halted a six-month decline and stabilized its rating at 27.4 percent support, according to Crobarometar. Sources close to Andrej Plenković attribute this stabilization to open conflicts with Zoran Milanović, particularly regarding the deployment of military units to France.
At the same time, the SDP has fallen into a new crisis with a drastic drop in popularity, leaving HDZ without a direct challenger at the top. Plenković also benefits from emphasizing ideological clashes with Možemo, which insiders say he will continue to do in the long term. The holiday season has further favored the ruling party-the public has turned its attention to tourism, and the party is closing ranks.
Despite the stabilization, there is caution at the top of HDZ. Long-term projections give the SDP-Možemo alliance a slight edge over the HDZ-Homeland Movement coalition. Most's rating of eight to nine percent makes that party a key factor two years before the parliamentary elections.
HDZ has long had difficulties forming coalitions, and its split with Most was highly unpleasant-twice. Cooperation after the next elections is therefore unlikely, especially if Plenković remains at the helm. Most directly influences who will take power.
Reacting to these trends, Plenković ironically recommended that everyone cooperate with Most, noting that they will "all be enlightened very quickly," just as HDZ was enlightened through bitter experience. Most has cooperated with the ruling party on two occasions, and both times they were ousted from the government-for Plenković, that option is permanently crossed out.
The latest polls show a continuous rise for Možemo, which for the first time in a long while exceeds 13 percent support. This dynamic is changing the hierarchy within the left bloc. The SDP is not thrilled because Možemo is no longer just the junior partner from Zagreb but a national force that will demand significantly more influence in any future coalition, including the right to prime ministerial and ministerial positions.
Plenković has mitigated negative trends by emphasizing economic successes and announcing new compensation measures. In HDZ, there is a traditional rule: when polls show an opposition lead, the membership unites and consolidates. One must keep in mind HDZ's real power, based on strong grassroots organizations.
Insiders in ruling circles do not only cite left-wing activities as the main threats to Plenković but also internal party struggles, potential investigations, and-most importantly-the complete loss of coalition potential on the right. As the political scene heats up, HDZ Youth marked International Youth Day under the theme "Different Contexts, Shared Aspirations."
