CEIZ Index Falls: EIZ Forecasts GDP Growth of 2%, CNB 1.6% in Q2
Economists see first signs of cooling after 21 consecutive quarters of Croatian economic growth, industrial production and retail trade decline
Economists see first signs of cooling after 21 consecutive quarters of Croatian economic growth, industrial production and retail trade decline
Economic activity in Croatia began to slow slightly in the second quarter of 2026, macroeconomic indicators warn. The Institute of Economics, Zagreb (EIZ) estimated on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the period from April to June could be 2.0 percent on an annual basis, while the Croatian National Bank (CNB) presented a somewhat more cautious forecast of 1.6 percent about ten days ago.
The signals of a possible trend change come after the Croatian economy achieved 21 consecutive quarters of growth in the first quarter of 2026, but even then the pace had already begun to slow significantly. According to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew by 2.2 percent in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, which is noticeably slower than in the previous quarter, i.e., the last quarter of 2025, when real growth was 3.6 percent.
The key monthly barometer of economic activity, the CEIZ Index, recorded a decline of 0.69 index points in May 2026 compared to May 2025. On a monthly basis, compared to April 2026, the index increased by only 0.03 index points, the Institute of Economics, Zagreb reported in Riječki Novi list.
A detailed analysis of the four components of the index reveals a mixed picture. A higher seasonally adjusted value in May compared to April was recorded for only one component: the number of tourist arrivals. At the same time, the index of industrial production volume, state budget revenue from value added tax (VAT), and retail trade turnover had lower monthly seasonally adjusted values. On an annual basis, budget revenue from VAT and the number of tourist arrivals increased, while industrial production and retail trade recorded decreases.
From the Institute of Economics, Zagreb, they state that the described movement of the index suggests a slight slowdown in economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous one.
"Based on the movements of the index values, we can estimate that in the second quarter of 2026, the Croatian economy will grow by 2.0 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year,"stated EIZ, adding that for a more precise estimate of the annual GDP growth rate, we should wait for the publication of the June CEIZ Index.
In parallel, the central bank also signaled a similar direction. According to Riječki Novi list, the CNB estimated about ten days ago, i.e., around July 19, 2026, that the real growth of the Croatian economy in the second quarter could slow to 1.6 percent on an annual basis, while quarterly growth could amount to 0.3 percent.
