After a few more hot days, a more pronounced weather change is expected at the start of next week, with a drop in temperature and possible heavy rain, first in the northern Adriatic.
The heatwave that has marked most of August is still not letting up, but according to the latest forecast models from the State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ), Croatia is set for a more pronounced weather change at the start of next week. After a few more very warm and sunny days, on Monday, August 17, 2026, the change is expected to first affect the northern Adriatic, bringing a sudden drop in temperature and possible rain. The likelihood of heavy rain is also increasing, and according to Dnevno.hr, after the Assumption of Mary, everything could shift, and this period of heat and drought might finally take a step toward cooler weather.
For Thursday, August 13, DHMZ forecasts mostly sunny and hot weather across the entire country. In Slavonia, Baranja, and Srijem, morning temperatures will range from 16 to 18 °C, with daytime highs reaching between 30 and 32 °C. It will be equally hot in central Croatia, where mostly sunny weather is expected, with only occasional moderate cloud cover.
On the northern Adriatic and in Gorski Kotar, the maximum air temperature will be between 27 and 30 °C, while along the coast it will range from 32 to 35 °C. A moderate to strong bora wind is expected along the coast, with possible gale-force gusts in the Velebit area, weakening in the afternoon. In Dalmatia, it will be mostly sunny and hot, occasionally very hot, with morning temperatures from 21 to 23 °C inland and between 25 and 29 °C along the coast. Daytime highs in Dalmatia will generally range from 32 to 37 °C, and in some places may reach 37 degrees.
Dragoslav Dragojlović, MSc, from DHMZ, told HRT: "On Thursday in Slavonia, Baranja, and Srijem, it will be sunny and hot. In the middle of the day and in the afternoon, there will be moderate cloud cover in the highlands. A moderate north and northeast wind will blow occasionally. The lowest morning temperature will be from 16 to 18 °C, and the highest daily temperature between 30 and 32 °C."
For Thursday, red warnings for heat are in effect for the Rijeka, Split, and Dubrovnik regions, while an orange warning has been issued for the Knin region. Due to possible strong bora gusts, yellow warnings have been issued for the Rijeka and Dubrovnik regions, according to information from Krapinsko-Zagorska.
Until the end of the week, the weather will remain mostly stable. Inland, it will be mostly sunny, with a gradual increase in daytime temperatures, while moderate cloud cover will be mainly in mountainous areas. On the Adriatic, it will be sunny and hot, with warm nights. On Friday, the bora wind will be moderate to strong at first, but will weaken during the day and shift to southwest and northwest. On Sunday, a moderate southerly wind (jugo) will blow on the Adriatic.
"In the coming days, it will be stable, mostly sunny inland, with a gradual increase in daytime temperatures. Moderate cloud cover will be mainly in mountainous areas. On the Adriatic, it will be sunny and hot with warm nights," Dragojlović forecast for HRT.
According to current DHMZ models, a more pronounced weather change is expected on Monday, August 17, first in the northern Adriatic. Rijeka could see a sudden drop in temperature with rain, and the refreshment should then spread to Zagreb, where temperatures could drop by several degrees at the start of next week. In the central Adriatic, no such pronounced change is currently forecast. In Split, after very hot days, a drop to around 30 degrees is expected from Sunday, but no significant rain is currently forecast for Monday.
However, the forecast may still be adjusted in the coming days, especially regarding the exact timing of the change and the amount of precipitation. A more reliable picture of the weather at the start of next week will be known as Monday approaches. If the forecasts materialize, this change could mark the end of the summer heat and a gradual transition to a cooler period.
