What are Dinamo's chances of winning the HNL title according to the model?

According to the model by Football Meets Data, which ran 50,000 simulations, Dinamo Zagreb has a 75 percent chance of winning the title.

Which clubs have the highest odds for the title after Dinamo?

After Dinamo, the highest chances are held by Rijeka with 12.3 percent and Hajduk Split with 6.2 percent.

Are these forecasts final?

No, the forecast was made very early in the season, and the percentages will change depending on future results, injuries, and team form.

Football

Dinamo has 75 percent chance of winning the HNL title, according to the model

Q: Why are Osijek's chances so low despite good results?

Although Osijek opened the season with two wins, the statistical model has not yet significantly changed their title odds, which stand at 1.3 percent.

B.N. · Prije 3h | 2 min

Statistical platform Football Meets Data ran 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season and found a convincing favorite. Dinamo Zagreb has a 75 percent chance of winning another title.

Summary

Football Meets Data's model ran 50,000 simulations and gave Dinamo a 75% chance of winning the HNL title.
Rijeka is the second favorite with 12.3%, while Hajduk is third with only 6.2% odds for the title.
Osijek started with two wins, but the model gives them just 1.3% chance for the title.
Clubs like Rudeš, Istra 1961, Gorica, and Slaven Belupo have a 0.1% chance or less.

Although the new SuperSport HNL season is still in its infancy, one team has already statistically emerged as an almost untouchable favorite to win the title. According to projections from the specialized platform Football Meets Data, Dinamo Zagreb has a 75 percent chance of finishing the season in first place.

The model ran 50,000 simulations of the rest of the championship, and in three-quarters of the cases, the Zagreb club was the one celebrating at the end. If this forecast comes true, the Blues would secure their 20th Croatian league title in the last 22 seasons, further highlighting their long-standing dominance in domestic football.

Rijeka and Hajduk far behind, Osijek surprises

The closest challenger according to this calculation is Rijeka, but their chances are several times lower, standing at 12.3 percent. Hajduk Split occupies third place with only 6.2 percent odds for the title. The platform also posted slightly rounded figures on social media platform X, according to which Rijeka has a 12 percent chance and Hajduk 6 percent.

Among the clubs that still have at least symbolic chances for the title are Varaždin with 3.3 percent, Lokomotiva with 1.6 percent, and Osijek with 1.3 percent. Interestingly, the team from Opus Arena started the season with two wins and currently has a perfect record, but the statistical model has not yet significantly altered their title odds.

Minimal chances for the rest of the league

For Rudeš, Istra 1961, Gorica, and Slaven Belupo, the projection is significantly less optimistic. The model assigns each of these clubs a 0.1 percent or lower probability of finishing at the top of the table at the end of the season, effectively eliminating them from any serious title race.

Of course, it should be noted that the forecast was made very early, on August 10, 2026, and the championship hasn't even completed its second round yet, as the match between Rijeka and Dinamo was postponed. The percentages will change throughout the season based on results, injuries, and team form, but the initial numbers clearly indicate how much statistical models believe in Dinamo. According to Football Meets Data's calculation, the Blues are already in a league of their own compared to the rest of the competition.