Hajduk and Rijeka on the Brink: Croatia Faces Jackpot or Disaster
Football Meets Data analysis shows Croatian clubs are among the most critical for the national coefficient in the Conference League playoff.
Football Meets Data analysis shows Croatian clubs are among the most critical for the national coefficient in the Conference League playoff.
Hajduk and Rijeka enter the Conference League playoff this week, and their clashes against Poland's Raków and Denmark's Midtjylland carry far more weight than just advancing to the league phase. According to the football data and analytics site Football Meets Data, these two Croatian clubs are among the most pivotal for the national coefficient, with Hajduk ranking fourth in terms of expected negative impact from elimination.
At Poljud, Hajduk will host Poland's Raków, while Rijeka will play in Denmark against Midtjylland. Neither side is favored, but statistics show that wins and successes from our clubs are essential for a better Croatian coefficient. With Dinamo already guaranteed at least the Europa League and hoping for the Champions League, Croatia is seeking a second or even third club to enjoy an international autumn.
Football Meets Data published an analysis in which they ran 10,000 simulations to calculate how much the national coefficient would suffer from each club's elimination from Europe. The results are stark for all three countries: Denmark, Switzerland, and Croatia are living on a knife's edge.
"These are easily the most significant playoff matches in the coefficient space. Winners will get a massive boost to their country's coefficient, while losers will be left with a huge deficit. There is no middle ground," wrote Football Meets Data.
In a follow-up post, they added: "And here's what it looks like when we weigh the potential negative impact of elimination against the risk of it actually happening: Denmark, Switzerland, and Croatia are living on a knife's edge! They are the main candidates to either hit the coefficient jackpot or suffer a coefficient catastrophe next week!"
In the table where the coefficient loss is weighted by each club's probability of elimination, Danish clubs Midtjylland (-0.840) and Nordsjaelland (-0.798) hold the top two spots. Switzerland's Sankt Gallen sits third with -0.752, while Hajduk is fourth at -0.739. Lugano of Switzerland takes fifth place with -0.721, and Rijeka is sixth with -0.717.
Telegram.hr reports that if Hajduk were to be eliminated by Raków, the Croatian coefficient would lose 1.438 points. Additionally, Hajduk has just over a 50 percent chance of being eliminated, making them one of the riskiest clubs on the entire list.
On the same list, Midtjylland ranks first and Raków tenth in terms of expected negative impact of elimination on the coefficient. These matches become crucial because the opponents of Croatian clubs also carry Danish and Polish hopes.
What is certain is that there is no middle ground for the Croatian coefficient. Rijeka and Hajduk will either secure a significant bonus or cause significant damage if they fail to surprise their opponents.
