Former British diplomat Charles Parton warns that a full-scale invasion of the 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' could become Beijing's biggest mistake, risking global economic collapse and a prolonged guerrilla resistance.
A full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which former British diplomat Charles Parton calls an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier,' would be an 'existential gamble' and could become Beijing's biggest mistake, the Taipei Times reports, citing an analysis published in The Sun.
Parton, a senior fellow for international security at the Royal United Services Institute, spent 22 years working in Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong. His analysis comes amid heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, a crucial maritime route for the global economy.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping fails to take Taiwan, he 'risks being swept away by a backlash from the mainland,' Parton said. Beyond the anger of Chinese citizens who would lose children in a war, China's economy would likely collapse, and the resulting 'major economic dislocation' would lead to unemployment, leaving Xi's reputation for good governance 'in tatters.'
Parton called this a 'huge risk' and said he would be 'very surprised' if Xi launched an invasion 'without close to 100 percent certainty of winning in Taiwan.'
If the Taiwanese were properly prepared, 'it would be extremely difficult to carry out an invasion, and the odds are you would fail,' Parton said. Chinese forces would face an 'extremely tough' task crossing 161 kilometers of treacherous waters to reach Taiwan's well-defended islands.
According to Parton, China has only about 13 beaches where forces could land, and airborne troops 'are at great risk of being shot out of the sky, especially as drone technology increases.' Beijing would need to amass a vast number of troops, equipment, and air support, which would serve as a 'fairly clear warning.'
'That would give the Americans and others time to reinforce and make it even harder for China,' he said. 'So I'm very skeptical that an invasion would actually happen.'
If China attempted to blockade Taiwan, it would essentially cut off a large part of the Taiwan Strait, a crucial maritime route for the global economy. 'There would be a global economic collapse' and a 'massive downturn' in China, Parton said.
'And then you enter a scenario of mass unemployment in China,' he added. Parton described the situation as an 'existential threat,' citing 'mass unemployment and massive instability directed at the party.'
Even if China managed to occupy Taiwan, it would be difficult to hold onto it due to prolonged guerrilla resistance. Parton said Xi might think: 'If we're going to go through months, years of guerrilla resistance, then that won't look good to my people.'
China is more likely to continue applying other forms of pressure on Taiwan to convince Taiwanese that unification is inevitable, Parton concluded.
