As the US and Iran send conflicting signals on negotiations, a new attack on a vessel and Iranian plans to control the key waterway further escalate tensions threatening global energy supplies.
Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran deepened on Tuesday after reports emerged that Tehran seeks control over ship entries into the Strait of Hormuz and the "power to intervene" in that strategic passage. Meanwhile, a new attack on a cargo ship near the Omani coast was reported, underscoring the ongoing threat to global energy routes.
According to a senior Iranian source involved in talks with Oman, as cited by Reuters, Iran wants oversight of incoming traffic into the strait and visibility into outgoing traffic, with the ability to intervene when deemed necessary. The source described this as "the general idea currently under consideration" and clarified that the exit route would run between Iran and Oman, with Oman issuing departure permits after notifying Iran. "It is unlikely that Tehran will change its stance," the source added to Reuters.
This news comes as Washington and Tehran send entirely contradictory signals about the state of diplomatic efforts to end the five-month war. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that negotiations are underway and are taking place at the request of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, among others. "They are happening right now," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, warning that this is "the last chance for them (Iran) to sign a good document."
On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied on Monday that any negotiations with the US are taking place or are planned. Baghaei added that there are no plans to receive foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days. The only talks currently ongoing, he said, pertain to managing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman.
Later on Monday, Trump on his social media platform Truth Social called the Iranian leadership "incredibly two-faced," asserting that they are the ones who requested a meeting. He also reiterated his claim of complete US Navy control over the strait, writing: "The Steel Wall of the United States! Nothing goes into Iran unless we want it to, and nothing will go out unless a Deal or Total Surrender is reached."
Tensions at sea continue unabated. On Monday, a cargo ship sent a distress call reporting it had been struck by an unknown projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Traffic through the strait remains severely slowed. According to data from analytics firm Kpler, only six vessels passed through on Monday, including three tankers and three bulk carriers, down from seven the previous day. For comparison, roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid the uncertainty, Al-Monitor reports that Israeli officials believe the current status quo suits them better than a potential agreement between Washington and Tehran. "The current status quo-the absence of [a major] war and the simultaneous absence of dialogue-is preferable for Israel than an agreement between Washington and Tehran," Al-Monitor quotes an Israeli diplomatic source. The source adds that "Israel is convinced that a deal [between the two sides] does not guarantee either the halt of Iran's nuclear program or the elimination of ballistic missile production."
According to the same sources, Israeli officials believe that the US focus is currently primarily on restoring shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, while issues of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, which are most urgent for Israel, have taken a back seat.
Despite the tensions, hopes that US-Iranian tensions could ease led to a drop in oil prices on Monday. Brent crude futures fell by about 7%, settling at approximately $83.77 per barrel. At the same time, major stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones closing at a record high. Asian markets and oil prices saw slight gains on Tuesday.
Analyst Michael Knights from the Washington Institute highlights Iran's strategy: "Their great advantage is that they can harm regional states and the global economy." This, as Gulf officials assess, is Iran's hope to convince the US and its allies that the cost of containing the crisis is higher than yielding to Iranian demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
The war between the US and Iran has lasted more than five months, since Trump launched Operation "Epic Fury" alongside Israel. In June, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding, but it collapsed in early July, and since then Tehran has publicly refused negotiations with Washington.
