Japan Declares China Its Greatest Strategic Threat
The 610-page document specifically addresses Beijing's growing military presence around Taiwan and the possibility of a 'gray blockade' of the island.
The 610-page document specifically addresses Beijing's growing military presence around Taiwan and the possibility of a 'gray blockade' of the island.
Japan's Ministry of Defense has released its 2026 Defense White Paper, a comprehensive 610-page document that officially designates China as the country's largest and unprecedented strategic challenge to national security. Tokyo assesses that Beijing is deliberately turning heightened military activity around Taiwan into a new norm, setting the stage for a potential blockade or direct military operation.
According to data gathered by Tokyo, more than 3,700 Chinese aircraft flights and around 2,600 naval transits by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) were recorded near Taiwan during 2025. The Japanese government believes that these extensive military exercises are preparations for a blockade, precision strikes, and a coordinated operation involving all branches of the armed forces.
The most likely scenario highlighted is the so-called "gray blockade." Under this assessment, Beijing could first deploy coast guard vessels and civilian structures for inspections, restrict navigation, and isolate Taiwan, before quickly transitioning to a full-scale military operation if necessary. The document also warns of the potential for deliberate destruction of undersea infrastructure, such as communication cables, aimed at paralyzing communications and sowing panic in the early stages of a conflict. Examples cited include incidents of cable damage between Taiwan and the Matsu, Penghu, and northern islands.
The White Paper pays particular attention to China-Russia cooperation. The Japanese government assesses that, in the event of a Chinese military action in the Taiwan Strait, Russia could simultaneously intensify military pressure in the airspace and waters north of Japan or in surrounding areas. The goal would be to force Japan and the United States to divert resources, thereby increasing risks to regional security.
The document also notes the active expansion of Chinese naval capabilities beyond the First Island Chain. It highlights joint operations of the aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong in the Pacific Ocean, as well as the commissioning of a third carrier, the Fujian. Tokyo believes these forces could be used to deter potential U.S. and Japanese intervention in a Taiwan crisis.
For the first time, the White Paper includes a dedicated chapter on next-generation warfare. Drawing lessons from the conflict in Ukraine, the Japanese military anticipates that future conflicts will rely on a combination of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), artificial intelligence, satellite systems, cyber operations, electronic warfare, and information-psychological operations.
In the context of the Taiwan Strait and the southwestern islands, drones could be used for surveillance of the Miyako Strait, eastern Taiwan, and the Bashi Channel, tracking Chinese aircraft carriers, and conducting anti-submarine operations, mining, and creating decoys. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces acknowledge that expensive surface-to-air missiles cannot sustain prolonged defense against swarms of cheap drones, necessitating a multi-layered air and drone defense.
In response to these threats, Japan is accelerating its own preparations. It is currently deploying long-range anti-ship missiles in Kumamoto Prefecture, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and hypersonic glide projectiles in Shizuoka. Additionally, investments are being made in intelligence and information systems, and cooperation with the U.S. and allies is being expanded. The U.S.-Japan alliance remains the cornerstone of security, and Tokyo, with Washington's support, will deepen military cooperation with Australia, India, the Philippines, and European countries to, as the Japanese government states, "prevent" the escalation of a crisis into a direct conflict with China.
