Brief Respite Before Fifth Heatwave
Western Europe records its hottest June-July period on record, while the UK braces for another surge of extreme heat peaking at 36°C.
Western Europe records its hottest June-July period on record, while the UK braces for another surge of extreme heat peaking at 36°C.
After a brief respite at the start of the week, the UK and much of Western Europe are bracing for the fifth heatwave of the summer. The Met Office forecasts that temperatures will begin to climb again as early as Tuesday, peaking on Thursday with up to 36°C in the southeast of England.
This heatwave arrives as half of England and all of Wales have already been officially declared drought areas. The Environment Agency (EA) warns that drought status could soon be extended to additional parts of England, given that less than 10mm of rain has fallen in the past seven weeks, with less than 1mm recorded in eastern and southeastern parts of the country.
According to data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, Western Europe is experiencing an exceptionally hot summer. The average temperature for the June-July period reached 21.62°C, which is 2.79°C above normal and sets a new historical record, surpassing the previous one from 2022. Globally, July 2026 was the second warmest on record, tied with 2024, while in Europe, with an average temperature of 20.49°C, it ranked 11th.
Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, explains the unusual weather pattern. "Such an east-west contrast in summer weather is typical of El Niño years," he said. While Western Europe swelters, much of Eastern Europe and Scandinavia are experiencing below-average temperatures, with Finland seeing temperatures typical for this time of year.
Prolonged drought conditions have severely impacted key European rivers. The Seine, Rhine, and Danube are recording exceptionally low water levels, affecting water supply, irrigation, and energy production. The National Farmers' Union (NFU) has warned that continued dry weather could lead to shortages of certain food products.
Water levels in reservoirs across England continue to fall, with nearly all below normal and five classified as 'exceptionally low'. In Wisley, Surrey, not a drop of rain has fallen for over 50 days, while southern England approaches two months without significant rainfall.
Monday brought brief relief, with maximum temperatures of 18-24°C in the north and 22-27°C in the south. However, by Tuesday, warmer air returns to the UK, bringing temperatures of 27-30°C, highest in central southern England, the Midlands, and eastern Wales. Yellow heat warnings are in effect until 21:00 BST on Tuesday, but they are expected to be extended or upgraded.
Wednesday brings widespread temperatures in the high twenties and low thirties across England and Wales. The heat will also spread northward, affecting northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland with temperatures of 20-25°C. The peak of the heatwave is expected on Thursday, when temperatures could reach 36°C in southeastern England and up to 35°C in central and eastern England. This would mark the fourth consecutive month that the UK has recorded a temperature of 35°C, a new record.
Nighttime hours will offer little relief, as minimum temperatures in England and Wales will not drop below 16-18°C. In southeastern England, there is a possibility of a 'tropical night', when temperatures remain above 20°C all night. In contrast to the south, northwestern Scotland received more than half of its monthly rainfall in just two days, illustrating the dramatic weather differences within the country.
