Although global economic losses in the first half of the year fell significantly compared to 2025, reinsurer Swiss Re stresses that the danger is not over. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and increasingly destructive wildfires threaten in the remainder of the year.
Global economic losses from natural disasters in the first half of 2026 reached $100 billion (approximately €92 billion), reinsurance group Swiss Re announced on Tuesday. This marks a sharp decline compared to the same period last year, but the company warns that a calm first half does not guarantee a calm continuation.
According to the latest report, losses are significantly lower than the $152 billion recorded in the first half of 2025. They are also 10 percent below the ten-year average for this period. Severe storms in the United States and deadly earthquakes that struck Venezuela in June contributed to the reduction, yet overall damage remained below usual levels.
Swiss Re, which acts as an insurer for insurance companies, emphasizes that losses from natural disasters often rise in the second half of the year, mainly due to hurricanes in the North Atlantic. "A less costly first half does not mean the risk has disappeared," said Balz Grollimund, head of the Catastrophe Perils department at Swiss Re. "One major hurricane, earthquake, or wildfire can quickly change the picture."
His warning comes as extreme heat across Europe, present since June, fuels an early wildfire season in France and Spain. Fire has already destroyed thousands of homes, businesses, and infrastructure.
Swiss Re particularly highlights the growing risk of wildfires, which have so far accounted for a relatively small share of insured losses in Europe. "Wildfire risk has so far accounted for a relatively small share of insured losses in Europe. However, it is the fastest-growing weather-related peril globally," the company's report states. Adjusted for inflation and other factors, insured losses from wildfires in Europe have grown between 8 and 11 percent annually since 1970.
Looking ahead, Swiss Re warns that the El Niño climate pattern, which began in June and is expected to peak later this year, could increase costs associated with weather-related events. "El Niño can influence tropical cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific and can alter the risk of floods, wildfires, and other weather extremes elsewhere," the company explained.
Despite more favorable figures in the first part of the year, Swiss Re stresses that the key long-term drivers of loss growth remain unchanged. "The long-term drivers of catastrophe losses remain unchanged, including growing exposure in hazard-prone areas and rising reconstruction costs," the report adds.
