US Assessment: Putin Could Test NATO with Limited Attack
According to intelligence reports, the Russian president is considering scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to a minor military incursion on the Alliance's eastern flank.
According to intelligence reports, the Russian president is considering scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to a minor military incursion on the Alliance's eastern flank.
According to reports carried by US media on Saturday, citing intelligence data, Vladimir Putin, Russia's leader, may test NATO's resolve over the next few years through a limited strike on one of the member states, as reported by dpa.
Media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and CNN indicate that a range of possible scenarios is being considered, from a Russian cyberattack to a minor military incursion into the territory of a NATO member. The aim of such a move, amid the war in Ukraine, would be to divide the Alliance and probe its readiness to respond.
According to information from the Wall Street Journal, the United States previously believed that Putin would not want to provoke a NATO member while simultaneously waging war against Ukraine. However, as US officials told the paper, this assessment has been revised this year.
One possible scenario the paper cites involves sending soldiers in unmarked uniforms to seize territory. Although the likelihood of such an extreme scenario-a military incursion into the eastern flank of NATO-remains low, it is growing over time. The period in which potential attacks could occur is estimated from this autumn through 2029.
According to CNN, the most likely targets of any attack, regardless of its nature, would be the Baltic states or Poland. The Lithuanian government recently stated that its military intelligence has indications that Moscow might be considering strikes on vital infrastructure in the Baltic countries, potentially using Ukrainian drones in such operations.
These assessments come at a time of heightened tension on NATO's eastern flank, where allies are closely monitoring any sign of potential escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine's borders.
