Although the Rassvet system has only 21 operational satellites, it is already creating communication windows lasting up to an hour and a half, which could change the dynamics of warfare.
Russia's satellite internet system Rassvet (Dawn), conceived as a response to SpaceX's Starlink, is still in its infancy, but it is already creating the first communication windows over Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian website Militarnyi, there are at least two daily windows lasting from one to an hour and a half during which Russia could theoretically use the system for command and control, raising concerns about its future use in drone operations.
The significance Russia attaches to the Rassvet project was highlighted by Russian blogger Kirill Fyodorov, who compared it to the creation of the atomic bomb in the last century. "Back then, we couldn't exist without a nuclear umbrella, and today Russia needs its own satellite communications and artificial intelligence to continue existing as a sovereign great power, not as a third-world banana republic," Fyodorov said, as reported by EUobserver.
His words may sound exaggerated, but the well-known Russian war channel Rybar also assessed that the project, if completed, would be "the greatest achievement of Russian space exploration since the collapse of the Soviet Union."
Satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets confirmed to Militarnyi that a chain with good coverage has already been formed. "We can see that a chain with good coverage is actually already formed, providing this level of coverage approximately twice a day, but in reality there are more overflights," Stepanets said.
Russia launched its first test satellites back in 2023. In March 2026, the first batch of 16 satellites was launched, and a second batch of 16 satellites in July 2026. According to the website Satellitemap, there are currently 21 operational satellites in orbit. The 16 satellites from July are expected to reach orbit in October or November 2026.
Russian plans are ambitious: 250 satellites by next year, 730 by 2030, and nearly a thousand by 2035. However, Ukrainian communications expert Serhii Beskrestnov warns that between 200 and 250 satellites in orbit are needed for continuous and stable data transmission. The current launch pace, once every three months, is far from what is needed.
Militarnyi estimates that even at the current pace, with the launch of a fourth batch in March 2027, Russia could have continuous coverage over Ukraine approximately a year later. "This could have serious consequences for the armed forces if they do not introduce effective countermeasures by then," the Ukrainian website states.
Although the possibility of equipping Geran drones with small terminals is most often mentioned, the Russian channel Two Majors cites a much broader range of applications. "It enables connecting reconnaissance assets into a unified network, allowing, for example, an artillery crew to receive real-time data from all radar stations, unmanned aerial vehicles, or electronic reconnaissance assets operating in its sector," they explained.
The Telegram account Black Swan emphasizes that Rassvet does not need to compete with Starlink, which already has nearly 11,000 satellites in low orbit. "Rassvet does not need to compete with Starlink; its task is to cover the Arctic, military units, transport, occupied territories, and Ukraine," they said.
Ukrainian media are already discussing the possibilities of shooting down satellites. The website Defense Express notes that the technology has existed since 1968, with options Ukraine could use since 1985. However, Black Swan warns of the risks: "Jet drones could theoretically be adapted for this. But it's not that simple."
Shooting down modern satellites would create large amounts of debris in orbit that could hit other satellites. Therefore, Black Swan proposes a different approach: "The most realistic approach, therefore, is not shooting down satellites, but selectively jamming signals in a specific area, blocking terminals, or disabling ground access points, of which there should be no more than 10. This is a relatively cheap and potentially very effective system. We must develop countermeasures now, not wait for its full implementation."
While the debate over satellites continues, the situation in Donbas is deteriorating. According to maps from the Black Bird Group organization, Russian forces are increasingly advancing toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the two largest free cities in the region. In some places, the red lines are only 10 kilometers from the first houses in that urban area, making the cities increasingly uninhabitable.
