Europe Held Hostage by Erdogan and Morocco
The mass attempt by migrants to enter the Spanish enclave of Ceuta has exposed the EU's dependence on cooperation with Turkey and Morocco, which use migrants as a means of pressure.
The mass attempt by migrants to enter the Spanish enclave of Ceuta has exposed the EU's dependence on cooperation with Turkey and Morocco, which use migrants as a means of pressure.
Europe's migration policy rests on the assumption that Turkey and Morocco, as long as they receive money and political concessions, will stop migrants on their way to the EU's borders. However, the chaotic scenes in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta show that the situation can change overnight, as soon as Rabat or Ankara decide to open the migrant route for their own interests.
The EU has mobilized at least six billion euros for refugee aid and migration management in Turkey, and the agreement with Ankara has significantly reduced the number of arrivals via the Eastern Mediterranean. In 2023, Morocco was approved a package of 152 million euros for migration management and border reinforcement. However, this arrangement remains functional only as long as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Moroccan King Mohammed VI are satisfied with their ties to Brussels.
When they want additional money, political concessions, or support in a conflict with another state, migrants become a means of pressure. Morocco has extremely close ties with the administration of US President Donald Trump and Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, so Europe cannot rule out the possibility that migrants have become a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical deals.
After the mass attempt to enter Ceuta, the situation in the city is gradually calming down, but chaos reigns in the neighboring Moroccan town of Fnideq. The beaches are under surveillance, and Moroccan national police are stationed almost everywhere. The sounds of sirens, police whistles, and the shouts of young people mark a town that was until recently a peaceful summer resort.
Among those who are not giving up is 25-year-old Hamza from Tangier. On Saturday, he tried to swim to Ceuta, but claims he was beaten by Spanish soldiers and then by Moroccan police officers.
"I will try again. The salary I have in the textile industry is not enough to live on, and Europe is my dream," he said.
On the other hand, 21-year-old student Hajine from Fez will never try to cross the border again. She arrived in Fnideq by moped and swam toward Ceuta after reading rumors on social media that the border was open.
"I came back because they treated us like dogs. There was no food, all the shops were closed," she said through tears.
Many restaurants, cafes, and shops in Fnideq are closed for fear of looting, and those that are open strictly control the entry of customers, making it difficult for migrants to get food, even when they have money.
Estimates suggest that more than 50,000 people headed toward Ceuta, making this situation significantly more serious than the one in 2021. Many migrants who were turned back report spending days without food and water and being driven out of town by authorities. Hundreds of people are returning across the rocky areas along the border fence, while their personal belongings remain on the beaches. Several people have died during the crossing attempts, and there are fears that the death toll could rise as searches continue for the missing.
Analysts believe that such a large migrant wave was only feasible with the tacit consent of the Moroccan authorities and link it to the new political tension between Morocco and Spain over Western Sahara. The effects are also visible in the local economy: tourists are canceling reservations, merchants are suffering losses, and many hospitality workers have left their jobs to try to reach Europe.
It is expected that EU interior ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting during the week to coordinate a joint response to Morocco and prevent a repeat of a similar crisis. Europe must not break off cooperation with Turkey and Morocco. However, it must have the ability to defend its own borders even when that cooperation weakens. This includes a stronger Frontex, more European border police, better maritime control, faster return procedures, and preparedness for crisis situations without relying on an unreliable partner.
