Russians in Panic Sell Assets and Flee
Russian military losses reach 1.4 million, and recruitment can no longer keep pace with frontline casualties. Signs point to a new mobilization after September elections.
Russian military losses reach 1.4 million, and recruitment can no longer keep pace with frontline casualties. Signs point to a new mobilization after September elections.
Despite official denials from the highest levels of government, fear of a new mass mobilization is growing in Russian society. Estimates suggest it could occur after the parliamentary elections in September, and citizens are already taking concrete steps to avoid conscription. According to data from the internet company Yandex, queries about leaving the country have drastically increased compared to last year, and more and more people are selling property, quitting jobs, and obtaining passports for entire families.
According to analyses by Western intelligence agencies, cumulative Russian military losses reached 1.4 million people by mid-2026. This figure includes killed, missing, captured, and wounded soldiers. The Russian portal Mediazona, which records only confirmed deaths, had documented 236,000 deaths by the end of July. This represents the lower bound of estimates.
An additional estimate has been developed based on excess male mortality, using data from the national probate registry. According to this method, the number of killed Russian soldiers rises to about 350,000. With the standard killed-to-wounded ratio of 1:3 to 1:4, the upper bound of total losses reaches 1.7 million military personnel.
After the partial mobilization in late 2022, Russia found a model for attracting new personnel without disrupting internal security. Conscripts were offered drastically high salaries and bonuses, which particularly appealed to those from impoverished provinces. In the first half of this year, about 200,000 conscripts signed contracts with the military, a similar number to the same period last year.
However, this pace is no longer sufficient to offset battlefield losses. It is estimated that the Russian military cannot achieve its goal of capturing Donbas without declaring mobilization. The problem is twofold: a new mobilization would likely include reservists with minimal training and people unfamiliar with weapons, and the political risk, given growing social discontent, is extremely high.
Although authorities officially deny plans for mobilization, there are increasing signs to the contrary. Agencies analyzing the labor market report a multiple-fold increase in demand for military registration specialists. Over two thousand job postings for military registration and mobilization preparation specialists have been published, indicating thorough technical and administrative preparations for the upcoming wave of call-ups.
In some regions, cases of forced conscription on the streets have been reported, where security forces, with the assistance of local authorities, hand out so-called pre-notices to men. Key military industry companies are also changing criteria for exempting their workers from mobilization, signaling a redistribution of human resources from industrial facilities for military needs.
In recent years, a system of electronic summonses and registries with automatic restrictions has been developed. Twenty days after an electronic summons is issued, measures such as driving bans, asset freezes, and credit denials are automatically imposed. However, the system is quite flawed and often operates haphazardly, so some citizens with imposed bans drive without issue, while others without bans are not allowed to drive by police.
Since 2022, there has also been a noticeable increase in police reports for "discrediting" the military and anti-war sentiments. Individuals use institutions for personal revenge and settling family or property disputes. A so-called "mobilization of exes" has also emerged-if a man owes alimony, his ex-wife can initiate strict asset-freezing measures through bailiffs, leading some to see signing a military contract as their only way out.
All these signs have triggered a new wave of emigration from Russia. Unlike previous waves, this one is quieter, more organized, and better prepared. Citizens are selling property, quitting jobs, and obtaining passports, often leaving as entire families. The main routes lead to Georgia, Armenia, and Kazakhstan, countries with visa-free regimes with the Russian Federation. Amid economic pressures and the suppression of freedoms, fear of increasingly aggressive militarization has become a key factor in leaving the country.
