Spanish intelligence warns that the plan for a mass crossing from Morocco into Ceuta in mid-August is credible, with analysis of WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram messages revealing detailed preparations.
Spanish authorities and intelligence services are on high alert after social media was flooded with calls for a new mass crossing of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, planned for August 15, 2026. According to an analysis by the non-profit fact-checking organization Maldita.es, at least four WhatsApp groups, ten Facebook groups, and more than 50 Instagram accounts have been used to discuss and organize the crossing.
Anxiety has further increased after Ceuta experienced a dramatic influx of migrants last week. At least 70,000 people then swam or forcibly broke through the border, resulting in the tragic loss of at least 77 lives. The victims drowned in the Mediterranean Sea while trying to bypass border barriers. This event sparked a serious diplomatic dispute between Madrid and Rabat.
Messages circulating on the networks contain precise instructions, maps, and advice, ranging from what to wear to the locations from which to depart. Most are written in Arabic, with a smaller portion in French, suggesting they are also intended for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. One message, adorned with the Spanish flag, says: "On that day, everything will be free, and we will get there." The meeting point is listed as Castillejos, which Moroccans call Fnideq, a town right on the border with Ceuta.
However, among the hundreds of thousands of members of Facebook groups analyzed by El País, there is not complete unity. The newspaper reviewed five groups with a total of more than 400,000 members and found messages full of skepticism. "Brothers, is anything happening on the 18th? Or the 30th? Or only in 2030?" one user asks. Another warns: "Are you going on the 15th? You won't find transportation. I'm right next to the border crossing." Some posts suggest that the target could also be Melilla, the other Spanish enclave in North Africa, and one user seeks advice for crossing near Beni Ensar, the entry point for Melilla: "People, for all those passing through Beni Ensar, the entry point for Melilla, explain the plan to us: how do you cross there? I tried to enter, but the Spanish Civil Guard turned me back."
Faced with the threat of a new wave, Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska told journalists on Tuesday: "We will deploy all necessary resources to respond to any situation." His statement comes amid a fierce exchange of accusations with Morocco over the causes of the crisis.
Morocco blames a decision by a Spanish court, which it claims favors migrants, for the sudden increase in crossings. A Moroccan official stated on Tuesday that his country had warned Spain in advance that this regulation would become a "problem," as it prevented the immediate deportation of people arriving by sea. Madrid almost immediately dismissed these claims, stating that "criminal smuggling networks" were responsible for the increase in crossings.
According to Italy's La Repubblica, Spanish intelligence has assessed that the risk of a new mass border attack on August 15 is credible. The European Union maintains a high level of alert, and according to the same source, Brussels believes these events are also fueled by Russian disinformation. In light of the threat, an official from the Brenner Pass sent a clear message: "Proteggere Schengen", protect Schengen.
The photographs accompanying the reports, credited to photographer Violeta Santos Moura, bear witness to the dramatic scenes at the border and the desperation of thousands of people trying to reach European soil.
