Every year, more than 130,000 people leave the former Yugoslavia. While politicians offer million-euro subsidies, young people like Matija from Zagreb say they need functioning kindergartens, public transport, and trust in the system.
The countries that emerged from the breakup of the former Yugoslavia are experiencing a worrying emigration trend, with an average of about 133,500 people leaving each year, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In the period from 2019 to 2023, covered by the latest available database for 31 countries, Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina lost more than 660,000 citizens in total.
Croatia holds the unenviable record for brain drain. According to the same data, around 47,000 people leave the country each year, meaning that one in every 80 residents decides to leave, given a population of about 3.8 million. Serbia follows with an annual average of 43,000 emigrants, while around 40,000 citizens leave Bosnia and Herzegovina each year.
Mario (30) from Tuzla, Mijat (29) from Negotin, and Matija (22) from Zagreb seem to have nothing in common. They attended different schools, work in different jobs, and don't know each other. Yet all three share the fate of thousands of young people from the former country: they live abroad or are actively planning to leave.
They confirmed to Deutsche Welle that they didn't make the decision overnight, and although their personal motivations differed, the reasons were almost identical: a dysfunctional system and a lack of societal organization. Matija, who has lived in the German city of Mainz since he was 16, vividly describes why people leave Croatia.
"Why do people leave Croatia? Because nothing works there! Public transport doesn't work, kindergartens don't work, there are no jobs, no apartments, everything is expensive. People want to live in countries that function; it's not just about money," Matija told DW.
Demographer Vladimir Nikitović from the Institute of Social Sciences in Belgrade told DW that migration factors have changed significantly over the last 30 years. Economic push factors used to dominate, but today people are increasingly motivated by satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the state of society.
Nikitović, however, emphasizes that the importance of quality of life varies depending on the type of occupation. Educated people with higher expectations increasingly value non-financial aspects, while for those in manual jobs, the income difference remains decisive. "Among highly educated people, who typically have higher expectations from life, quality of life and all those factors not exclusively related to money or salary rank very high on the list of priorities," Nikitović points out.
On the other hand, he adds, for people in manual jobs where wage differences are often five or six times greater than in the region, the economic factor logically remains crucial. "That's still the largest share of people leaving," the demographer concludes.
Speaking about the impact of current political events on young people's motivation, Nikitović believes they say more about the general state of affairs than directly prompting emigration. "Political circumstances say more about the state of society than about whether someone will actually migrate. When young people say they would leave and cite the political situation or the state of society as the reason, it says more about their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with social conditions than about them actually leaving because of it," he explains to DW.
While Bosnia and Herzegovina still lacks an official state program to encourage the return of young people, Serbia and Croatia have recently offered new measures. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced subsidies for returnees during a pre-election speech in Svilajnac, without specifying the amounts. Currently, measures include administrative assistance and a five-year tax relief that reduces the base for taxes and contributions by 70 percent, meaning levies are calculated on only 30 percent of earnings.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković offers more generous incentives. Investments in returnees are in the millions, ranging from a five-year income tax exemption to potential €27,000 for starting a business.
Although these measures carry some weight, DW's interviewees believe they are not sufficient to encourage a mass return. Nenad Jovetić, director of the Institute for Development and Innovation (IRI), emphasizes that quality education and healthcare systems would be key assets. "Salary and income are important, but when it comes to your children's health or education, if you can offer that to young people who have previously emigrated-that would be the real thing," Jovetić says.
Demographer Nikitović agrees, viewing financial incentives more as a political gimmick than a measure that can change the situation. "Most of these people don't have enough trust in society, or in the state and the way the system works. That's why I think financial incentives are secondary-what's much more important is that people feel there is a perspective and a chance for progress," Nikitović concludes.
That money is not the primary motivation for leaving or returning is confirmed by Mario, Mijat, and Matija. All three tell politicians the same thing: fix the systemic problems and we'll return without any incentive. Majlinda Bregu, Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council, warned back in 2023 that the Western Balkans region could lose between a quarter and half of its skilled and educated young citizens in the coming decades.
