The war with Iran has dramatically drained American arsenals, and experts warn that Moscow and Beijing could exploit Washington's multi-year vulnerability to take more aggressive action.
The rapid depletion of American offensive and defensive capabilities in the conflict with Iran has opened a serious security vulnerability, senior officials and defense analysts warn in the New York Times. There are fears that Russia and China, which have long understood that US weapons stockpiles are gradually being exhausted, could be emboldened to launch a limited conflict with the United States, betting that Washington will need years to replenish its depleted arsenals.
Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), described the current situation as a "generational destruction of conventional deterrence assets." "It's impossible for this not to have a significant effect on the calculations of Russia and China. They can do something quite deliberate and at a time of their choosing, because remember, it will take us years to rebuild," Karako told the New York Times.
According to data from the Washington Post, in just the first month of the conflict with Iran, the US fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles, over 1,000 THAAD interceptors, and at least 1,300 tactical ballistic missiles. The New York Times adds that at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors were also expended. Reuters recently reported that the US has spent "nearly all" of its high-precision long-range missiles, each costing about $1 million to produce.
Particularly alarming is the figure on Patriot interceptor stockpiles, which, according to anonymous sources cited by the New York Times, have only 1,700 units left in US warehouses. The Pentagon has been forced to redirect ships, aircraft, and air defense units from Asia and Europe to the Middle East, which, according to US officials, has caused "cascading consequences" for troop morale and equipment maintenance.
Low stockpiles have become a source of tension between President Donald Trump and the Pentagon. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, is reportedly seeking "off-ramps" from the conflict. The New York Times writes that Caine informed Trump about the ammunition shortage before the start of the war with Iran, but the president nonetheless decided to proceed with the conflict.
The Washington Post reported last week that Trump confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the shortage, which he had assumed was "resolved." The president is also reportedly deeply upset about leaks regarding low stockpiles and has instructed advisers to downplay the issue or blame his predecessors.
"Our defense companies are producing more ammunition than ever before, while rapidly expanding their facilities and equipment at record levels," said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. She also warned: "Anyone with access to classified military information who leaks it to the media betrays that trust and violates federal law and should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."
In July, Trump claimed that the US has "far more ammunition than anyone in the world" and "far more than we need." However, according to the New York Times, it was precisely the low stockpiles that were the key reason he backed down last month from a major bombing campaign he had threatened against Iran.
The consequences of draining American arsenals are already being felt in Ukraine. Due to the diversion of weapons, Kyiv cannot adequately defend against Russian attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that interceptors "could have saved the lives" of at least dozens of people killed in a Russian attack last week. "It is precisely this shortage of interceptor missiles that only encourages Russia to launch such attacks that claim lives," he added.
The New York Times also notes that Trump recently publicly withdrew his consent to grant Zelensky a license to produce Patriot interceptors, although the Ukrainian president continues negotiations with US defense contractors.
Pro-Russian war blogger Aleksandr Kots wrote that "the situation is shaping up very favorably." "The less precision weapons the US has, the less will reach Ukraine," he argued. Even if the administration that succeeds Trump tries to boost aid to Kyiv, Kots believes that "it will be impossible with empty arsenals."
In Asia, there is growing concern that low stockpiles could affect the US ability to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. During the war with Iran, the US military diverted several shipments of Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weapons from the Indo-Pacific Command. Air defense systems were transferred from South Korea to the Middle East, leaving US troops vulnerable to potential North Korean attacks.
Officials in Asia have expressed concern that South Korea and Japan might begin developing their own nuclear weapons to establish independent deterrence. In Europe, allies have started purchasing more weapons from other countries due to US production backlogs. Analysts warn that a prolonged conflict with Iran would benefit Beijing and Moscow, and that Russia could consider an incursion into NATO territory if it assesses it can outlast the US.
Faced with reports of shortages, Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg sent a memo on Wednesday to defense industry leaders, giving them 21 days to present plans for "significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules and/or increased production for critical capabilities." "Multi-year development cycles are not acceptable. We must dramatically accelerate our program schedules and expand our production capacity now," Feinberg wrote in the memo, as quoted by the Washington Post.
