Professor Grgić: Food Prices Could Jump 20 Percent
Agricultural expert Ivo Grgić analyzed the impact of the heatwave on domestic agriculture for RTL Direkt and revealed what citizens might see on their bills.
Agricultural expert Ivo Grgić analyzed the impact of the heatwave on domestic agriculture for RTL Direkt and revealed what citizens might see on their bills.
Although there is no reason for panic this year, Croatian consumers should already be aware of the potential blow to their household budgets. Professor Ivo Grgić from the Faculty of Agriculture in Zagreb, in an interview with RTL Direkt, estimated that agricultural product prices could rise by about 20 percent, which would logically spill over into final food prices.
Farmers in Croatia, as well as in Hungary, Italy, and Greece, are talking about an unprecedented heatwave that has hit the region this year, further heightening concerns about future yields.
Grgić is clear: there is no justification for food price increases this year due to rising raw material costs. "There is no reason this year for food to become more expensive due to rising agricultural product prices," he said. He explained that in processed products, agricultural goods account for only a part of the price, while the rest comes from other costs like energy. However, the key warning comes for next year.
"If next year is similar to this one, and no one has a crystal ball to predict that, there is a possibility that agricultural product prices could rise by around 20 percent," the professor emphasized, adding a succinct remark: "The most expensive food is the food that isn't there."
Among all field crops, sunflower is the only one with increased acreage this year, while corn and soybean areas are slightly smaller. Grgić warns that sunflowers are particularly sensitive during flowering and grain filling stages, and prolonged drought could reduce yields. Still, he does not expect serious disruptions in the domestic market because Croatia has a surplus of sunflower, soybean, and corn.
When asked whether Croatia should change the crops it grows, Grgić answers negatively. "I don't think so. It's time to change production technology," he said. Instead of planting bananas, which is more of a joke to highlight the seriousness of the situation, the key is better water management. He reminded that the daily water footprint per person, through everything we use and consume, is about 3,000 liters of water.
Speaking about the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, the professor "defended" the state by saying it mostly sets things up solidly, but often lacks response from the field. He cited African swine fever as an example, where the problem of wild boars is being addressed rather than the main cause, the fragmented production structure. In Croatia, there are about 160,000 producers, mostly family farms.
"Without consolidating production, it's hard to expect a serious breakthrough," Grgić said. He emphasized that agriculture should be viewed as a business: "Young people won't stay in agriculture out of love for the job. If they are enabled to earn a decent average net salary in agriculture, then they will pursue it."
To preserve a sense of domestic flavors and tradition, Grgić, along with colleague Katarina Dimitrijević Hrnjkaš, prepared a recipe book from Net.hr. The goal is to attract young people and show that quality and affordable food can be prepared from domestic ingredients. As an example, he highlighted a backyard hen that has a smaller water footprint than a farm-raised one, and vegetables that many can grow themselves.
"If you buy, it might be more expensive. But many of us can produce some food ourselves. We need to return to using the resources we have," Grgić concluded.
