Putin Could Test NATO by 2029
Assessment escalated due to pressure on Putin to secure victory in Ukraine, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to limited ground intervention.
Assessment escalated due to pressure on Putin to secure victory in Ukraine, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to limited ground intervention.
U.S. intelligence agencies have expressed concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO's resolve in the coming years by launching a limited attack on one of the member states. This assessment, published by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, August 6, 2026, is based on the changing dynamics of the war in Ukraine and the fact that the U.S. military faces a missile shortage, according to multiple U.S. media reports.
According to the intelligence report cited by the Wall Street Journal, "Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO's resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country in the coming years." The potential timeframe for such an action is cited as from this autumn through 2029.
Several scenarios are being considered, ranging from a cyberattack to a limited ground intervention. Although the likelihood of a limited ground incursion is assessed as low, the Wall Street Journal emphasizes that it "grows over time."
Previously, the United States assessed that Putin would not provoke a NATO member while the war in Ukraine continues. However, that assessment has changed. "This assessment changed earlier this year," U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal, "because Putin is backed into a corner in Ukraine and faces internal pressure to secure a victory."
The Wall Street Journal notes that such a move has always been considered extremely unlikely precisely because it would trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This article commits all members to collective defense, meaning an attack on one ally would be considered an attack on all.
Meanwhile, NATO forces continue their regular activities. On Saturday, August 8, 2026, NATO mine-hunting forces joined the German Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre in a joint search-and-rescue exercise, aimed at honing rapid response capabilities and ensuring maritime readiness.
