The departure of Vukovar chief Krunoslav Raguž, along with earlier exits by Davor Matijević and Branko Kolarić, vividly illustrates the problems of the strongest opposition party, although the numbers are not yet causing panic.
The situation in the strongest opposition party has once again come under scrutiny in recent weeks following a series of personnel departures and a drop in support to 18.8 percent according to the latest published poll. Although the question of whether the SDP is in crisis extends beyond the confines of Iblerov trg, the answer for now is fairly clear: the party is not in crisis, but it is also not on the path to a more serious recovery.
The latest departure, that of Krunoslav Raguž, president of the Vukovar SDP, is a rather vivid example of personnel neglect. In a lengthy letter, Raguž explained local conflicts within the party, stating that his party Facebook profile was taken away because he opposed Thompson's concert in Vukovar.
What is striking is not the reason for his departure, but the fact that he remained in the party at all after the SDP, under his leadership, suffered a near-total debacle in last year's local elections, winning one council seat. After the defeat, Raguž took to social media to lash out at voters and the city, calling Vukovar a "provincial backwater full of bums and nepotism". He called a local journalist a "faggot", a priest a "fat slob", Serbs and the SDSS "Serb scum, daddy's boys", and the deputy mayor a "fat redneck".
Despite these insults, Raguž not only remained a member of the SDP but was re-elected as president of the local organization. "It would be better not to have an organization in some areas than to have such personnel," said one source from the party leadership for Telegram.hr.
Raguž is not the only example. Former head of the Split branch, Davor Matijević, has in recent years reduced his political work to undermining Ivica Puljak and the Center, which ultimately brought the HDZ to power in Split. Matijević and another councilor from his SDP list secured a majority for the HDZ in the City Council. His successor, Sandro Glumac, lasted only a few months, during which he practically never appeared in public.
Recently, the former head of the Zagreb SDP, Branko Kolarić, also left the party, claiming he was ignored, although he rarely showed up or spoke in Parliament. His departure coincided with the fact that he was not appointed head of the Teaching Institute for Public Health "Dr. Andrija Štampar".
These departures are likely the reason for the drop in the polls, as recent election cycles have shown that conflicts within the SDP are the main catalyst for rating declines. However, the numbers are not dramatic for now. In July, according to the average of two regular public opinion polls, the party stood at 20.2 percent. At the beginning of last year, it reached 25 percent, largely attributed to the effect of Zoran Milanović's victory in the presidential elections, before falling to 21.6 percent in December.
A drop of 1.4 percentage points compared to last year is not a cause for alarm, especially since, combined with coalition partner Možemo!, the SDP still stands ahead of the HDZ. The pool of left-leaning voters is around 33 to 35 percent, and when undecided voters are excluded, it can go up to 38 to 40 percent.
Despite the obvious effort of the party leadership, led by Siniša Hajdaš Dončić, and persistent field actions like the one on inflation, the SDP is at best stagnating. The party still reacts sluggishly to events, part of the parliamentary team seems to be in a state of permanent siesta, and the field organization in the largest cities is on the brink between crisis and complete collapse.
The next few months will clearly show whether the SDP can pick up the pace not only towards the public but also towards itself. If they enter this time next year in this state, when pre-election hysteria will already be shaking the country, it might be too late for a serious turnaround.
