Experts Reassure: No Shortage of Electricity or Fuel This Autumn
Extreme drought and the Middle East conflict raise concerns ahead of winter, but energy experts Ivica Jakić and Igor Grozdanić provide sector-by-sector assessments for N1.
Extreme drought and the Middle East conflict raise concerns ahead of winter, but energy experts Ivica Jakić and Igor Grozdanić provide sector-by-sector assessments for N1.
The end of summer traditionally brings questions about the security of supply and energy prices ahead of the colder months. This year, concerns are heightened by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and record-low river levels, which directly impact the operation of hydroelectric plants and the Krško Nuclear Power Plant. Nevertheless, energy experts Ivica Jakić and Igor Grozdanić, in an interview with N1, assert that there will be no shortage of electricity or fuel, but they warn of potential issues with natural gas.
The Krško Nuclear Power Plant, which covers 16 percent of Croatia's electricity market needs, proactively reduced its reactor output by 20 percent midweek. The reason is the risk of overheating in the Sava River. "This is not a technological limitation but an environmental one, aimed at protecting the bio-environment and the temperature of the Sava River," explained expert Ivica Jakić.
Despite this, neither Jakić nor Grozdanić expect electricity supply to be compromised this autumn. Jakić emphasizes that the market will remain stable thanks to nuclear plants in France, as well as those in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which together have eight reactors. "They, like NE Krško, are cooled by air coolers and do not depend on the amount of cooling water from rivers or lakes," Jakić said. Additional security is provided by electricity imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina, where thermal power plants are operating without issues.
Grozdanić was even more direct in his assessment: "Unless something extraordinary or catastrophic happens, I do not expect shortages or problems in electricity supply. And if prices do rise, they won't rise significantly."
The fuel market is somewhat more dynamic. After four consecutive price cuts, the first wave of increases began in mid-July 2026, affecting only diesel fuel. Two weeks ago, a significant price hike for all fuels followed: LPG rose by five cents per liter, Eurosuper 95 by eight cents, and Eurodiesel by as much as 16 cents per liter.
According to unofficial information, next Tuesday Eurosuper 95 is expected to drop by two cents per liter, while Eurodiesel and blue diesel could rise by three cents. The final decision on any government intervention in prices will be made by the Croatian Government on Monday.
Igor Grozdanić, however, does not expect major disruptions this autumn. "As for fuel, the situation is more stable than in other energy markets here. Regardless of the situation in the Middle East, prices are always higher in summer due to the tourist season," he stated.
The greatest uncertainty surrounds natural gas. Grozdanić warns that underground storage facilities are filling very slowly, which he attributes to high prices unusual for this time of year. "The US-Iran war has reduced gas supply, and everyone is waiting to see how the situation in the Middle East unfolds. The situation is interesting because European natural gas reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 2011. Under current market conditions, it is not profitable for anyone to fill storage," he explained.
Currently, gas reserves in EU storage are just below 58 percent. A similar situation exists in Croatia's Okoli underground gas storage (UGS), which was 57 percent full on Friday. At the end of July 2026, the Croatian Government adopted a decision requiring Okoli to be at least 85 percent full by October 1, 2026, with a permitted deviation of up to five percent.
The price of natural gas in the European Union has already exceeded 60 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). Grozdanić's forecast for autumn is not optimistic: "In autumn, the gas price could range from 55 to 75 euros per MWh."
