Black Sea Conflicts Threaten New Global Food Crisis
Attacks on merchant ships and the collapse of insurance have blocked 90 percent of Ukraine's grain exports, and alternative routes cannot offset the losses.
Attacks on merchant ships and the collapse of insurance have blocked 90 percent of Ukraine's grain exports, and alternative routes cannot offset the losses.
The world could face a serious food crisis as early as autumn, with the key reason lying in the escalation of the conflict in the Black Sea. According to an analysis by Foreign Policy magazine, attacks on merchant ships and ports have practically halted Ukraine's agricultural exports, which could trigger global disruptions similar to those of 2022 and 2023.
On July 23, 2026, Ukraine announced that maritime traffic to its three unoccupied Black Sea ports had practically come to a standstill. In July, Russian missiles and drones targeted 57 merchant vessels, including those flying foreign flags. One of these ships was the Golden Leo, owned by a Turkish company and sailing under the flag of Guinea-Bissau.
On July 19, three Russian missiles struck it in open waters, not far from the coast of Odesa. Ten people lost their lives, and the ship sank on July 27. Subsequently, Ukraine called on the United Nations to once again ensure safe passage through the Black Sea, accusing Russia of war crimes and economic terrorism.
According to Ukraine's Minister of Agriculture, the agricultural sector could suffer direct losses in export revenues of between $1.5 billion and $3 billion this year. The maritime corridors in the Black Sea facilitate about 90 percent of Ukraine's total agricultural exports, as well as the majority of its mineral and steel exports. These sectors account for three-quarters of the country's foreign exchange earnings.
Although the situation is reminiscent of the period from 2022 to 2023, when the Russian naval blockade halted exports and trapped 20 million tons of grain, the current crisis has a fundamentally different nature. "In February 2022, Ukraine's agricultural stocks were full. That's why the impact was so strong then," explained Oleg Nivievski, an economist at the Kyiv School of Economics. This time, Ukraine has already managed to export its last harvest, and the global grain market has relatively large reserves.
A key difference is also that there is no physical blockade now. Russia is not preventing ships from leaving; it is directly attacking them. The financial risk has become so great that merchant ships no longer want to sail these routes, and war risk insurance premiums have skyrocketed, or insurance is not available at all.
A similar situation occurred in the Persian Gulf, where, since March 2026, conflicts have practically made commercial war risk insurance unavailable, and premiums have increased fivefold. The United States established a $20 billion government maritime reinsurance program, but most shipping companies still avoid sailing in that area.
"These are not accidents or collateral damage. These are deliberate attacks on civilian seafarers who have nothing to do with this conflict and have no way to avoid it," said Stephen Cotton, a representative of the International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF). The ITF emphasizes that no ship with a civilian crew should sail through that war zone until there is real and guaranteed safety.
The most likely solution remains the alternative transport routes used during the previous crisis, such as the Danube ports in Romania and Bulgaria and land routes through Central Europe. However, their capacities are far smaller than what Ukraine's deep-water ports can provide.
Currently, about 100,000 tons per month can be exported via the Danube, another 100,000 tons by road, and between 300,000 and 400,000 tons per month by rail to the west. This is significantly less than the 2.5 to 3.5 million tons of monthly capacity of the Black Sea ports. "In the long term, Ukraine has no viable substitute for its Black Sea ports," believes Slawomir Matuszak, an analyst at the Warsaw-based think tank Center for Eastern Studies. As he noted, even if all alternative routes were combined, they could cover at most half of the monthly capacity of the Black Sea ports, and Ukrainian exporters would face additional costs of $45 to $50 per ton.
The situation is further complicated by Ukrainian attacks on Russian maritime traffic. After drones struck over a hundred ships, Russia suspended navigation through the Kerch Strait on July 10. In July, Russia exported only 1.8 million metric tons of wheat, an 83 percent decrease compared to the same month in 2025, while its largest port, Novorossiysk, was almost completely idle.
Although the global grain market is still functioning for now, nervousness is growing. "But in September and October, the new harvest arrives," warns Oleg Nivievski. According to Foreign Policy magazine, with the onset of autumn, the world could experience a food supply crisis as severe as that of 2022.
