Professor Ivica Kisić from the Faculty of Agriculture warns that annual precipitation averages no longer reflect reality, as extreme droughts and downpours devastate soil, crops, and threaten rivers like the Sava and Danube.
Prolonged heatwaves and increasingly extreme weather events are leaving ever deeper scars on Croatian agriculture, water resources, and the economy. Professor Ivica Kisić from the Faculty of Agriculture in Zagreb told HRT that climate change in Croatia is no longer just about temperature records, but primarily about the duration of extremes that leave plants, soil, and rivers no time to recover.
Croatia has recorded exceptionally high temperatures before. A record 42.8 degrees Celsius was measured in Ploče in early August 1981. However, Professor Kisić points out that heatwaves back then lasted only a day or two, followed by rain and refreshment. Throughout July and deep into August, high temperatures can persist, resulting in a lack of moisture in the soil.
As one of the most striking examples of uneven precipitation distribution, Kisić cites Zadar in 2017. After June, July, and August passed with almost no rain, over 200 millimeters of precipitation fell on September 11 and 12. During the entire month of September, that city recorded about 450 millimeters of rain.
Such extreme downpours cannot compensate for months of drought because water quickly runs off, causes floods and erosion, and does not penetrate deeply enough into the dried-out soil. The annual precipitation average thus looked favorable, even though the summer months were marked by drought, fires, and enormous pressure on agricultural production. For farmers, the professor emphasizes, when it rains and how long the dry period lasts are far more important.
The greatest threat often remains invisible. Climate change is accelerating the decline in groundwater levels, meaning the roots of many plants can no longer reach the necessary moisture. In the long term, this can lead to desertification-the gradual transformation of soil into desert. Experts also warn of the decline of ash forests, which is directly linked to altered water regimes and chronic water scarcity.
Low water levels in the Sava and Danube further confirm the seriousness of the situation. Falling water levels pose a threat to nature, water supply, electricity generation, and river navigation. Due to its specific hydrological characteristics, the Drava behaves differently in some places, but it is not entirely protected from the long-term effects of climate change either.
Climate change in Croatia directly reduces agricultural yields, increases irrigation costs, and complicates production planning. At the same time, energy consumption for cooling rises, and low water levels can disrupt navigation and supply chains. When drought affects a large part of Europe, pressure on food prices increases because lower domestic production is not always easily compensated by cheap imports.
The European south, including Croatia, Spain, France, and Greece, is particularly exposed, where high temperatures are linked to more frequent fires. Northern countries could temporarily benefit from a longer growing season, while the south and parts of central Europe face increased losses and lower production reliability.
Professor Kisić concludes that adaptation must include more efficient irrigation, soil conservation, selection of more resilient crops, and systems for retaining rainwater. It is crucial to monitor local extremes rather than rely solely on annual averages. The effects of climate change will not be the same for all parts of Croatia, so strategies will need to be region-specific, taking into account soil type, water availability, and cultivated crops.
