Analyst Tonči Tadić claims that 50,000 people could not have been moved without state logistics, while Morocco rejects the accusations and says Madrid was warned. Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez blames 'mafia-like human traffickers'.
The migrant crisis that shook the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in late July 2026 has a deeper geopolitical background, according to Croatian foreign policy analyst Prof. Dr. Tonči Tadić. In his view, behind the mass arrival of nearly 60,000 people lies Morocco's aspiration to regain sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, and the entire operation would not have been possible without the benevolent attitude of the Moroccan authorities.
It all started with a viral message on social media that spread like wildfire across northern Morocco. The disinformation claimed that migrants arriving by sea in Ceuta could no longer be returned to Morocco. Although the information was inaccurate, it was convincing enough to trigger, on July 30, 2026, one of the largest migrant crises in the history of the European Union. In a single day, 50,000 Moroccans headed toward the Spanish enclave, most of them swimming or walking along the coast.
The toll was staggering. At least 72 people lost their lives during the crossing. Authorities in Ceuta reported that they had recovered a total of 88 bodies from the sea, some of which likely date back to earlier migrant attempts. Morocco, however, still officially acknowledges only 11 deaths. Hospitals and emergency services treated more than a thousand people within hours.
Prof. Dr. Tonči Tadić, a foreign policy analyst and physicist at the Ruđer Bošković Institute, expressed doubts about the spontaneity of the events in an interview with Slobodna Dalmacija. "The big question is whether 50,000 people can be moved to the border in a single day without state assistance. I argue that this could not have happened without state logistics, that is, without the benevolent attitude of Morocco. Behind it all lies something deeper: Morocco's aspiration to regain sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla," Tadić said.
These are two Spanish enclaves in Africa that Spain has held since the early 16th century. Tadić sees this as pressure on Madrid. "This is actually a kind of pressure on Spain to transfer sovereignty over these enclaves to Morocco. With the subtle message that this could happen again at any time. And that Spanish sovereignty over these territories is questionable," he explained.
The analyst also linked the crisis to the broader geopolitical context, mentioning the recent conflict between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. "We should not forget that the whole fuss arose immediately after the clash between Donald Trump and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez over the entry of European armies into the war against Iran, as well as the use of European military bases for American operations. Just as it is no coincidence that the main highway in Morocco was named after Trump, it is no coincidence that young Moroccans rushed to Ceuta overnight," Tadić said.
The disinformation fell on fertile ground in the area around the Moroccan city of Fnideq, located right next to the border with Ceuta, as well as the nearby towns of M'diq, Martil, and Tetouan. This region has been facing economic collapse over the past five years, after Morocco closed the border to goods from Ceuta in 2021, cutting off the main source of income for thousands of people who lived off cross-border trade. Morocco began treating this trade as smuggling that costs the state hundreds of millions of euros in lost tax revenue each year.
While Spain prepares legal changes to once again allow faster returns of migrants, Morocco rejects accusations of negligence. A senior Moroccan official, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said that Rabat had warned Madrid about the risks posed by the ruling of Spain's Supreme Court. According to him, talks with the Spanish side began on July 22 or 23, 2026, when social media started spreading the story about the new ruling. That ruling, issued a few weeks before the crisis, stipulated that migrants arriving by sea could not be automatically returned to Morocco under an expedited procedure.
"We made it clear that such a ruling could create a problem for us. And that's what happened-it created a problem," the official said. He rejected claims of a security failure. "It is simplistic to say that Morocco should have simply used force to stop them. That shows a complete misunderstanding of this phenomenon," he said, adding that managing migration costs Morocco around 500 million euros annually.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Friday presented his view of the causes of the crisis, saying it was linked to a rumor spread by "mafia-like human traffickers" who dishonestly interpreted the court ruling.
The Moroccan official stressed that Rabat and Madrid continued to act "as reliable partners" in "perfect coordination," but also shifted responsibility to the Spanish side. "It is now up to Spain to find answers to the challenges posed by this ruling," the unnamed official concluded. After the border breach, about 48,000 migrants returned to Morocco within just two days, either voluntarily or after intervention by the authorities.
Tonči Tadić also warns of legal complications at sea. "Under the Law of the Sea Convention, a state can intercept a vessel in international waters only if it is involved in the slave trade or piracy. If a boat overcrowded with refugees is in sight and sinking, you must not open fire on it in the style of Admiral Karl Dönitz from World War II. Instead, you must rescue them," he said. He also pointed out that arriving in Ceuta does not guarantee migrants the right to stay, because special permission is required to move to the European mainland, and under the 1992 readmission agreement, Morocco is obliged to accept all those who illegally cross into the Spanish enclaves.
The crisis in Ceuta has shown that in the digital age, borders are not only broken on land and at sea, but also on mobile phone screens. Sometimes a single viral video and a misinterpreted court ruling are enough to set tens of thousands of people in motion.
