An analysis of historical prices reveals that drivers today pay more for gasoline and diesel than they did 13 years ago, even though Brent crude has become cheaper and the state has reduced excise duties.
When the price of crude oil rises, an explanation for more expensive fuel at gas stations arrives almost immediately. However, historical data shows that pump prices do not fall at the same speed when oil becomes cheaper. An analysis conducted for autostart.24sata.hr by Dubravko Kolarić reveals how much the relationship between a barrel and a liter has changed over the past 13 years.
Comparing European Commission data for 2013 with the current situation paints a counterintuitive picture. That year, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude was as high as $108.56. Despite this, drivers in Croatia paid around €1.37 per liter for Eurosuper 95, and approximately €1.30 for diesel.
Today, according to data from the analysis, a barrel of Brent costs around $85. Standard gasoline has reached €1.56, while the price of diesel has jumped to approximately €1.71 per liter. So, even though crude oil has become cheaper by more than $20, fuel is significantly more expensive.
Data over a longer period further illustrates this disparity. In 2016, when Brent averaged just $43.64, gasoline in Croatia sold for about €1.18 per liter, and diesel for €1.07. Three years later, in 2019, with Brent at $64.30, gasoline reached €1.34, and diesel €1.32.
The pandemic year of 2020 brought a drop in Brent to $41.96 and a gasoline price of about €1.20. However, the energy shock of 2022, with Brent at $100.93, pushed gasoline to €1.60 and diesel to a record €1.76. Although the market has since calmed, prices have remained high: in 2024, with Brent at $80.52, gasoline was €1.54, and in 2025, with Brent at $69.14, gasoline still cost €1.49.
The logical question that arises is whether higher state levies are responsible for the price increase. The data suggests otherwise. According to government information, the excise duty on gasoline today is about nine cents per liter lower than before the energy crisis. For diesel, the reduction is about seven cents. VAT remains at 25 percent, as it was in 2013.
The answer to where the difference lies becomes clearer when all levies are excluded from the retail price. The price of a liter of gasoline without VAT and excise duties in 2013 was about €0.66. In 2016, it fell to just €0.43, and in 2019, it was €0.55. However, in 2024, this item rose to €0.75, and in the first part of 2026, it reached approximately €0.81 per liter.
For diesel, the increase is even more dramatic. While the pre-tax price in 2013 was about €0.70, during 2026 it has approached one euro per liter. It is precisely this segment-which includes procurement, refining, transport, storage, distribution, and refinery and trading margins-that has seen the largest jump.
The comparison is particularly striking for diesel. In 2013, with Brent at nearly $109, a liter cost €1.30. Today, with significantly cheaper oil, the price is €1.71. This clearly shows that the movement of crude oil prices is no longer the decisive factor in the amount on the bill at the gas station.
An additional dimension to the story is provided by state interventions that limit retail prices and margins. According to estimates presented in the analysis, without these government measures, pump prices would be higher by an additional 15 to 20 cents per liter. This implies that the room for profit within the oil supply chain, absent regulation, would be even more pronounced.
The statement "oil has become more expensive" is therefore no longer sufficient as an explanation for the price we see on the gas station sign, the analysis concludes.
