A chronic shortage of train drivers and outdated signaling caused two incidents last weekend, while the opening of the Belgrade-Budapest high-speed line threatens to turn Croatia into a transit dead end.
Last weekend, Croatia's railways narrowly avoided potential tragedy by sheer luck. Recent rail incidents, including a collision near Križevci and a red-light violation on the line to Rijeka, have starkly highlighted a serious industry-wide problem: Croatia is currently short of 50 to 70 professional train drivers. Both incidents were the result of human error, and it was only a matter of time before insufficiently trained personnel began operating trains on worn-out infrastructure.
The structural labor shortage, previously most visible in hospitality and construction, has now spread to the railways, and at the level of the entire European Union. The shortage of train drivers is so alarming that it has begun to threaten the EU's climate goals under the Green Deal, which relies on a massive shift of transport to more sustainable rail. That idea, as the column's author notes, is currently "on hold."
Germany is feeling the biggest impact, where, according to union estimates, 10,000 train drivers will be needed by 2030. German companies are aggressively recruiting staff from across Europe, including Croatia, offering starting salaries without a degree that exceed €4,000. By comparison, a train driver's salary in Croatia ranges from €1,650 to €1,850 per month. At the state-owned HŽ, it can reach over €2,000, but only with numerous allowances, while private companies in the domestic market offer fixed net salaries of up to €2,500 to attract scarce staff from state-owned companies.
Besides being a shortage occupation, the problem is compounded by lengthy and demanding education. Becoming a train driver requires 12 to 18 months of training, and the psychophysical tests for selection are very strict. As a result, a large number of candidates drop out at the very beginning of the process, further slowing the filling of key positions in a system that already relies on outdated signaling.
Croatia's rail network still largely relies on older, national analog systems. Consequently, international trains operated by computers often have to change locomotives at the Croatian border because foreign locomotives do not have the Croatian automatic train stop system installed. The solution was supposed to come from the much-vaunted "Decade of Railways," which has officially begun but is proceeding at two completely different speeds in practice. While the purchase of new trains is nearly complete and highly successful, work on track and signaling renewal is progressing slowly, with frequent delays and missed deadlines. The reconstruction of the Dugo Selo - Križevci section has been delayed for years due to financial difficulties or labor shortages among domestic and foreign construction companies.
While Croatia is gearing up with a renaissance in rail infrastructure, Serbia has already built the most modern single rail route in Southeast Europe. The line for speeds up to 200 km/h from Belgrade to Subotica was opened to traffic back in 2022, and the complete international route Belgrade-Budapest, which is an integral part of China's Belt and Road project, is expected to open in autumn 2026.
The opening of this line will have direct consequences for Croatia. Freight trains from Greece and Turkey will be able to use a straight, modern, and fast route through Serbia to Hungary, bypassing Croatia. HŽ Infrastructure could therefore see a reduction in revenue from transit fees. In passenger traffic, the consequences will be even greater: the train journey from Belgrade to Budapest will take only 3 hours, so passengers from the region heading to Hungary, Austria, and the Czech Republic will completely bypass the Croatian railway. If investments are not rapidly increased, Croatia risks becoming a province on the edge of an empire again, but this time on the edge of the European Union.
