Rhine at Historic Low
Record-low water levels on the Rhine and Danube disrupt shipping, threaten energy supplies, and drive up transport costs, prompting Germany's Transport Minister Steffen Bilger to call an emergency conference for Thursday.
Record-low water levels on the Rhine and Danube disrupt shipping, threaten energy supplies, and drive up transport costs, prompting Germany's Transport Minister Steffen Bilger to call an emergency conference for Thursday.
The water level of the Rhine at the key shipping point near Kaub, close to Koblenz, fell to just 25 centimeters on Friday, matching the record from October 2018. Germany's Federal Transport Minister Steffen Bilger has responded by convening a crisis conference on low water levels for Thursday in Bonn, as reported by Tagesschau.
Forecasts are even more alarming. According to data from the Waterways and Shipping Administration, released on Monday, the water level at the same point is expected to drop to a historic 18 centimeters on Friday, which would be significantly below all previously recorded values. BBC News reports that 44% of measuring stations on the Rhine and as many as 78% on the Danube recorded extremely low water levels at the end of July.
The problem is not limited to Germany. The Danube, which flows through ten countries, fell last week to its lowest levels in 30 years in several nations, including Serbia and Romania. This forced Hungary to shut down its only nuclear power plant. "We don't know when we'll be able to restart it. We hope it will happen as soon as possible and that the refreshing rain forecasters still don't see will come," Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said on Monday.
In Italy, the longest river, the Po, hit a historic low near Cremona at the end of July, raising the drought alert level to "high" across the entire Po Valley. The scientific group World Weather Attribution recently concluded that while there is no clear long-term trend in reduced precipitation, human-induced climate change increases moisture evaporation due to higher temperatures, making droughts more likely.
Low water levels seriously threaten inland navigation, which is crucial for transporting grain, minerals, coal, and oil products. Ships can currently be loaded to only 20% of their capacity. "There comes a point where cargoes are too small to be profitable, or shipowners worry about damaging their vessels," a commodities trader told Reuters.
The consequences are already visible in prices. Transport by tanker from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe cost between 145 and 150 euros per ton on Monday, more than triple the price at the end of June, when it stood at 45 euros. Economist Stefan Kooths from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy warns of broader implications: "Overall, the effects could be strong enough to reduce gross domestic product in the third quarter by 0.1 to 0.2 percent."
Minister Bilger, who recently took office, told Reuters that the conference in Bonn will cover both short-term and long-term measures. "We are used to occasional low water levels, but it is very early for such a problem as we are experiencing now," he said. The issues are particularly pronounced on the Rhine, but also on the Danube and the Elbe.
A spokesperson for the Transport Ministry added that the topic has been closely monitored for some time. Since 2022, a low-water action plan has been in effect, which includes a six-week forecast and the NIWIS information system. The state has so far subsidized retrofits of cargo ships with 10.5 million euros to make them more usable in low-water conditions, aiming to avoid shifting freight to road transport.
Martin Wolters, a representative of the Waterways and Shipping Administration on the Rhine, told German broadcaster WDR that while a complete halt to navigation is unlikely, precautionary measures will be necessary, such as distributing cargo across more ships to make them lighter. In the long term, this could lead to higher transport costs and supply bottlenecks.
