Russian Strikes Cut Ukrainian Grain Exports by a Third
Shipping companies suspend arrivals, and alternative routes cannot offset the loss. Storage facilities are filling up, and the consequences threaten the global food market.
Shipping companies suspend arrivals, and alternative routes cannot offset the loss. Storage facilities are filling up, and the consequences threaten the global food market.
Increased Russian attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure in the Black Sea have severely disrupted grain exports, reducing the capacity of key ports by approximately a third. Ukraine, one of the world's largest exporters, is now in a race against time to free up storage before the new harvest arrives, and the disruptions are already being felt in global food prices.
According to data published on August 12, 2026, the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, which until recently handled about six million tons of cargo per month, have fallen to approximately four million tons following the intensification of attacks. Given that more than 90 percent of Ukraine's agricultural exports passed through this route, any disruption has far-reaching consequences.
The security situation deteriorated sharply after attacks on civilian merchant vessels. In late July, Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine's Minister of Agriculture, stated that shipping companies had decided on their own to stop arrivals. He emphasized that this decision was not made by the Ukrainian state but by the shipowners themselves, who no longer wish to take risks.
Danish shipping giant Maersk was among the first to react, temporarily suspending service via one terminal in Chornomorsk and redirecting some cargo to the Romanian port of Constanța. Kernel, Ukraine's largest grain exporter, had already halted operations at its terminal in Chornomorsk. Russian attacks damaged silos, sunflower oil tanks, and other infrastructure, and the company reported damage to tens of thousands of tons of stored products.
The problem for Kyiv is not just the drop in exports but also the pressure of time. Ukraine entered the new season with large stocks-according to June estimates, about nine to 9.5 million tons of corn and wheat were carried over from the previous season. At the same time, the new harvest is arriving, and Ukrainian authorities estimated that storage space for spring crops would be sufficient at least until the start of the corn harvest in October. If exports through the Black Sea remain severely limited, pressure on silos will increase.
Kyiv is again trying to make greater use of alternative routes-rail, road, and Danube ports, along with transshipment to EU ports. The European Solidarity Corridors continue to transport millions of tons, and Romania's Constanța is again becoming a key hub.
But capacity is limited. According to Minister Vysotskyi, alternative routes could operate more steadily only by the end of August, and even then, they could take over only about half of the Black Sea ports' capacity. An additional problem is the low water level of the Danube, which currently further limits its role. Due to longer routes, transport costs are rising, adding further strain on Ukrainian farmers.
In recent seasons, Ukraine has accounted for about six percent of global wheat exports and about 11 percent of corn exports, making the problems in Odesa not just a Ukrainian economic issue. Wheat prices on world markets have already reacted strongly to the Black Sea disruptions in recent weeks, with additional pressure from extreme weather in other major agricultural regions.
