Calculations show that an average family of four would lose around €60 a month if all price caps and energy subsidies were lifted, with annual cost increases ranging from €500 to €900.
If the Government of the Republic of Croatia were to remove all its intervention measures, including energy subsidies, fuel price caps, and reduced VAT rates, the average family of four would face an increase in monthly living costs of around €60. On an annual basis, this amounts to approximately €900, according to calculations based on publicly available data on union consumer baskets and average energy prices. The government has stated that they are still working on their own projections for such a scenario.
The impetus for this analysis was a statement by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, who, responding to journalists' questions about the continuous rise in fuel prices, posed a hypothetical scenario. "What if, as a test for 15 days, all government measures were lifted, VAT returned to pre-crisis rates, and all energy subsidies removed? What then? What then? That is my answer to everyone," Plenković said, as reported by Zadarski list.
The calculation was made for a family of four living in a 75-square-meter apartment, owning one car, and using electricity for heating and cooling. The assumption of electric heating was used because access to gas is not uniform across Croatia, which would cause data to vary too much. Costs were analyzed in three main categories: fuel, electricity, and food.
Regarding fuel, assuming the car travels 1,000 kilometers per month with a consumption of 6.8 liters per 100 kilometers, monthly consumption amounts to 68 liters. Given that government fuel price caps have lowered prices by €0.05 to €0.15 per liter in recent years, removing these measures would result in an additional cost of €7 to €14 per month. During periods of significant market spikes, when the difference could reach 20 cents per liter, this amount would rise to €13.60 per month.
For electricity, the average monthly consumption of a 75-square-meter apartment ranges between 550 and 700 kWh. The subsidy on electricity prices for such a household with electric heating is estimated at €20 to €35 per month. In winter, this amount can exceed €50, while in summer it typically amounts to around €10. However, under conditions of constant air conditioning, as we are experiencing during the current heatwave, the summer benefit from the subsidy also rises to around €50, which has been taken as a parameter in the calculation.
For food, a family spending €900 a month on groceries would save between €10 and €25 per month from a combination of price caps on basic products and reduced VAT rates. Adding up all three segments yields a total range of cost increases from €37 to €74 per month, or €444 to €888 per year.
The difference between €500 and €900 a year is not a matter of calculation accuracy but reflects different household consumption habits. Electricity consumption is the largest single factor. A well-insulated apartment using 450 to 500 kWh per month will feel a significantly smaller impact than an apartment that uses electric heating in winter and consumes 800 to 1,000 kWh.
The same applies to fuel: a family traveling 600 kilometers a month will benefit less from price caps than one covering 1,500 or 2,000 kilometers. Additionally, in conditions of stable market energy prices, the difference after a potential removal of measures would be smaller, while in the event of another sharp rise in prices, the impact would be far more pronounced. Two seemingly similar families of four could experience cost increases of around €40 per month or €70 or more, depending on their purchasing habits.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Plenković also addressed the issue of energy security on Twitter. "Regarding security of supply, it is guaranteed. Croatia will have enough electricity," he wrote. He added that low water levels of the Danube have put Hungary in a situation where it is applying all safety protocols related to the Paks nuclear power plant.
